Derek Scissors at AEI used China’s own numbers of Wuhan and Hubei province exits in Dec/Jan to calculate 2.9mm cases — at the low end — and 136,000 deaths.
Here for the FR thread: http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3835944/posts
Here for the original paper: https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/estimating-the-true-number-of-chinas-covid-19-cases/
136k deaths I can believe. More than 2MM deaths? Unlikely.