“The good news is that the actual mortality rate is likely almost no different than a typical flu virus.”
yep: “the figure in one county could be more than 50 times the number who knew they had had the virus.” meaning the mortality rate could be 50 times lower than the various wild ass guesses being thrown around, particularly by the gaggle of “sky is falling” trolls that keep post BS articles with ridiculous mortality rates ...
also, that level of infection is good news for at least three other reason:
1. Herd immunity is well underway, so this thing will burn itself out sooner than the “experts” expected.
2. There’s no rational reason to keep economies shutdown in any fashion whatsoever, because the cat is already WAY, WAY, WAY out of the bag already.
3. “contact-tracing” is useless, again because the cat is WAY, WAY, WAY out of the bag already.
It is probably still a good idea to try to isolate the people at risk; i.e., the elderly and the infirm; while the herd immunity builds.
I can work remotely for quite a while, and I think I may even after they lift the lock downs, just to see how it pans out.
The governors get to roll the dice—winners get to run for higher office, losers get to end their careers in infamy.
Fun times.
Those who claim to know what is really going on are either fools or liars imho.
I calculate 3% infection rate in my state also, with deaths so far roughly 40 per 100,000. Multiply by at least 20 to 25 to get herd immunity, and you have 800 to 1000 deaths per 100,000, which is 0.8% to 1%. We are not well underway.
If you open up, you lose the chance to develop new treatments and maintain anything like adequate supplies of medications and PPE. You will overwhelm the hospitals and wreck the people who work there. More people will die because they can’t be treated. Nursing homes will be death camps, patients abandoned.
If too many people are scared, sick and dying, the economy crashes anyway.
As people sense this is winding down and as governments take steps to reopen, it will be imperative that the media do everything they can to stoke fears and make opening up sound like a horrible mistake. Watch for them to amplify every death in Texas as we get back to business.