Posted on 04/17/2020 4:17:22 PM PDT by fireman15
I also said we will never know what might have been" had actions not been taken because there's no way to go back and change what is.
Trump seems to sincerely believe that things could have been disastrous if we hadn't taken actions (which were driven by initial panic and thereby taken out of his hands) and if what "might have been" had actually happened, we'd have Senile Joe or some other Leftist in the WH come next year.
Reality may bite, but it is what it is.
No, YOU didn’t get it.
Did I say, “3 out of 100 people don’t walk away from it”?
No. I didn’t put a number on that, which was entirely intentional.
I SAID, IF you do get it, (let me repeat: if you do), THEN you might (an English word implying a statistical possibility, not a certainty) not walk away from it.
So that logical statement equates to a finite chance - expectation value not stated - of a certain outcome.
And that’s all. There is a severity of event implied by the comment about “nasty mofo” that perhaps further implies a larger expectation value, but I did not say that...on purpose.
Know why?
‘Cuz NOBODY KNOWS right now. The numbers are still being crunched, typically using naive methods which result in outcomes that may be orders of magnitude off the reality.
“based on models which relied on what will prove to be wildly inaccurate assumptions”
THAT is EXACTLY RIGHT!!!
I know the exact meaning of what you said and I agree with it, in and of itself.
But in the context of a thread about an article that says more people will walk away from it, you are delivering us "NEWS" that some people won't walk away from it.
I agree that they were inaccurate, but the President also seems to sincerely believe that things would have gone seriously different w/o the actions taken.
Yesterday's briefing had slides showing the differences between other countries and us as far as death rates...some are as much as 4X our rates.
Once the milk is spilt, tears do no good - stating the wipe-up process is the task at hand.
I believe you’re correct.
The death rates between the states vary from 901 per million in New York to 3 per million in Wyoming. New York is currently over 300X worse than Wyoming.
In Washington we were the first to have cases found and deaths in the country. My wife and I live in the eastern part of King County which was the part of the state that was hit first largely because of the half million Chinese who live among us, many of whom visit home frequently and have many visitors. In this area a couple of our local hospitals did have to go on divert status, but by the time our governor released his stay at home order, our hospitals had already gone back to normal and the crisis had past. Our deaths per million stand at 86 per million less than a tenth of New York's.
Our stay at home order was issued on March 23, New York's was issued on March 22, has more teeth and is more restrictive than ours. Their first case of “covid-19” was discovered on March 1. Our first case was discovered on January 19 in a man who returned from Wuhan on January 15. At this point it is obvious that both states had undiscovered cases for an unknown but significant amount of time before the first cases were discovered. In Washington because of so many resident's close connection to the Wuhan region and completely unrestricted travel from China up until January 31, it is now realized that the first infected individuals arrived here in December shortly after it started becoming a problem in Wuhan. This helps explain why hospitalizations and deaths in the eastern part of King County Washington peaked several days before the governor's stay at home order.
Why did it not get as bad here as New York before hospitalizations and deaths peaked? The timing rules out the stay at home order. I believe that the primary factor is population density and viral load at initial contact. If you get just a small amount of virus at initial contact your body is able to create antibodies and fight it off typically before you even develop any symptoms.
Three weeks ago on the fire department that I retired from 11 people tested positive. Only 1 developed any symptoms which he thought were from seasonal allergies. All recovered without hospitalization and now test negative. When people do not live right on top of one another and they are not sharing enclosed contaminated spaces with sick people in elevators, buses, subways, and other forms of mass transit they do not get a large dose of virus on their first contact and their bodies do not become overwhelmed with a virus they do not have any resistance to.
The stay at home orders do not really help with this and may make it worse in some situations. That is the problem with a one size fits all solution in a country of 350 million people.
Keeping our distance and being situationally aware, with a dose of extra hygiene, is the way to go and it relies on folks taking personal responsibility...I hope we don't have pockets of idiots doing what they can to reignite things.
Down in the coastal counties, the two main counties have 205K people and 145K people and the one with 145K has 205 cases vs. 144 cases for the larger...and the smaller county has more new cases trickling in....they are also the most liberal county down here...
I agree with you on this. This thing should not be approached with a cavalier attitude. I was disappointed when our economy was dramatically shut down here after the hospitals in our hot-spots had already returned to normal. It seemed quite obvious that the stated reason for the “stay at home order” which was to “flatten the curve” to avoid overloading our health-care system did not apply in this area. There were no areas in Washington State, the first state in the country to have both confirmed cases and deaths where the health-care system became overwhelmed other than a few scary days in early March when a pocket of people from the Life Care Center in Kirkland were hit hard.
Incidentally, my wife and I have both been at that facility many times doing both volunteer and paid work. So I was one of the first here to say that this was more than a political hoax and took some heat for that initially. But of course the Democrats and media did not disappoint and have done all that they could to politically weaponize this situation.
Folks have been free to drive around and do their business w/o being molested and a number of folks are using their "free" time to fish and such...most folks are smart enough to keep from close contact all on their own.
Chris Martenson just carefully analyzed this study—and demolished it as total garbage:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD2-QVBQi48RRQTD4Jhxu8w
Are you talking about Chris "the science is settled on global warming" Martenson? Oh yes I see that you are. You sure know who to put your faith in! /s
It was kind of cute the way he started the video by calling himself Doctor Chris Martenson… like he is a medical doctor which of course he is not. It seems very obvious that Chis Martenson has a lot invested into furthering the coronavirus panic. You do realize that he is a global warming true believer don't you? It is not surprising that he has latched into this as well and has applied the same type of faulty and misleading reasoning.
He not only didn't demolish the study... he didn't even make any meaningful points if you are not a regular CNN/MSNBC true believer. Get a life and start using your brain! When it takes over 40 minutes of convoluted blather to “demolish” a scientific study... he is playing word games and hasn't accomplished anything.
He has made one video after another day after day with scarier and scarier headlines even as the daily death rate in places like New York have dropped dramatically in the last few days. Poor Chris this thing is fading away and he is stuck on full on stupid and is going to ride this baby for all its worth no matter what.
“One popular series on the virus is produced by a personal finance guru with a history of pushing economic theories about peak oil and other resource crunches, but who has recently rebranded as a pandemic expert as news coverage of the virus has exploded.”
“I’m here with a really important message about the coronavirus,” Chris Martenson, one of the founders of the financial website Peak Prosperity, says at the beginning of a video entitled “Coronavirus Is Worse Than You’ve Been Told: Scientist Explains.”
“While Martenson calls himself a scientist in the video’s titles, his claim to the label is, according to him, based on a 1994 PhD from Duke’s Department of Pathology where he specialized in toxicology. While he published scientific research in the ’90s, for at least the last decade Martenson has focused on predicting stagflation and other large shifts in financial markets.”
“He’s not a practicing physician, he’s just a guy with a science background who’s taken an interest in this virus,” said Dr. Angela Hewlett, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Nebraska Medical Center and member of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, who clarified that she didn’t see anything in Martenson’s videos that gave her cause for concern.”
You would probably be better off getting advice from Tom Vu, late night real estate mogul... Here is a link to get you started:
Chris Martenson is the guy who got me prepped for this thing back in February.
Feel free to attack him at will—he has _earned_ my loyalty.
Chris Martenson is the guy who got me prepped for this thing back in February.
Feel free to attack him at will—he has _earned_ my loyalty.
https://www.postcarbon.org/our-people/chris-martenson/
Your Chicom flu guru is a globull warming scammer? Color me not surprised. Birds of a feather and all that...
I really could not care less about what your hero and disaster guru Chris Martenson has been saying since he graduated from global warming and peak oil to “pandemic expert” extraordinair. The guy is a charlatan who is always looking to make a buck off people's fears.
My wife and I live in the eastern part of King County. We have spent years both volunteering and getting paid to work at the Life Care Center in Kirkland. In case your not familiar this is where the first fatalities in the country occurred.
She is a retired nurse who spent most of her career working for agencies who cleaned up crappy nursing homes after things went bad, and working as a department head at multilevel care facilities. For the last 8 years that I worked as a fire officer I was one of the lead people on our Hazmat Team. My wife and I were not hoarding toilet paper and “prepping” for the coronavirus in February; we were living in the middle of ground zero.
By the time the governor's “emergecy stay at home order” went into effect here on March 23 the conditions at the ICUs at Overlake Hospital in Bellevue and their extension in Kirkland had already gone back to normal. A month later they were giving away most of the massive amount of supplies they had received to other hospitals and agencies. The emergency coronavirus hospital set up in Seattle at the sports stadium by the military was shut down because they never received any patients. The emergency coronavirus quarantine center set up at the sports stadium in Everett that was designed to hold 150 people was shutdown after receiving only 3 people and not all at the same time.
We have half a million recent Chinese immigrants living in the eastern part of King County. A high percentage of the 3 million people arriving from China into the USA come into SeaTac. Up until the “travel ban” on January 31 many were coming direct from Wuhan. After the “travel ban” they just diverted to Vancouver International a couple hours North and infected people most with no symptoms kept streaming into the country, many coming right to our back yard.
I have been saying for months now what was first discovered by UW virologists after the first community spread case in the country just North of here in Snohomish County... this virus has been going around the community since at least some time in December. But since the tests that most governments have been using for statistics have a narrow window for positive testing which lasts 2 weeks or less for most people... the number of people who have been infected is understated by a vast amount. Now multiple studies based on antibody testing, not just the Stanford study are starting to show that the statistics have been off by a factor of 50 to 85 times leading to highly inappropriate over reactions by government officials.
The reason things started improving here so dramatically had nothing to do with government restrictions on our activities. It was because the virus had already mostly silently ran its course here with the vast majority of people never even experiencing any symptoms and a vulnerable few who received a high viral load on first contact dying from it. The statewide numbers have kept creeping up because it continues to spread into areas that have not been affected. So don't you worry if your area has not yet been affected, it will be at some point, but unless you are sharing a crowded elevator, subway car, or in another type of small enclosed space with someone with an active infection you are not likely to get enough viral load to even give you any symptoms.
I believe what I experience.
Chris Martenson said to prepare so I prepared—and I was able to stay away from stores when everyone else was panic buying.
In my world there are two kinds of people—those who told me what I need to know when I needed to know it—and everybody else.
There are a very small number of people in the planet in the first group—and Chris Martenson is one of them—and some Freepers on the old CV threads are some others. They know who they are.
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