Posted on 04/17/2020 4:17:22 PM PDT by fireman15
I calculate 3% infection rate in my state also, with deaths so far roughly 40 per 100,000. Multiply by at least 20 to 25 to get herd immunity, and you have 800 to 1000 deaths per 100,000, which is 0.8% to 1%. We are not well underway.
If you open up, you lose the chance to develop new treatments and maintain anything like adequate supplies of medications and PPE. You will overwhelm the hospitals and wreck the people who work there. More people will die because they can’t be treated. Nursing homes will be death camps, patients abandoned.
If too many people are scared, sick and dying, the economy crashes anyway.
And we will need about 200 million to 250 million for heard immunity.
Thanks. I’m just reading some anecdotes on line and local descriptions, which undoubtedly are fluffed up for propaganda purposes.
Still, the respiratory damage from severe cases seems pretty over the top. Not something I’d want to go through, although even in my mid ‘60s, I still feel like my system would handle it. I’ve been in Central Asia and gotten some charming viruses that laid me out for a few days but I got past them.
Between the prophylactic therapies, possible cures, and eventual vaccines, this thing will / is being beaten down and will be brought under control.
If the Stanford Study is correct nationwide, 200 million may not be out of the question.
“And there is no good reason continue the lockdown, nor roll it back in stages. Trump should reccomend ALL states stop their lockdowns now! Not slowly over 6 weeks!!!“
Agreed. Why would we want a respiratory disease in the population any longer than necessary? Let us get to herd immunity!
Every version of this type virus, in the entire history of mankind, follows a very typical rate if left alone. 2 weeks ramp, two weeks run, then downhill to herd immunity.
Welcome to nature, believe it or not, it has a handle on this.....but it seems we are bound and determined not to let that happen.
The same can be said about climate change.
Governments around the world have put in place restrictions that based on models that have been based on false assumptions. At this point there is not enough data to support the 70% assumption that you are making. The number of hospitalizations and deaths do not support this at this point.
Except that more than 97% do. And most don’t even have symptoms.
Then stay home.
Sorry, I did a search and did not see the other thread.
Feel free to PANIC as you see fit.
“This whole thing (in my opinion) has been nothing but a disease set up by the RED CHINK COMMIES,”
Yes along with the help of a few elite liberal Americans, who will do anything to destroy Trump and conservative America. Russia didn’t work, impeachment didn’t work, will the coronavirus be their key to complete the “fundamental transformation” of America?
I don't think that you're getting it.
The study results suggest that more people walk away from it.
There is a shortage of test kits. The result is only those showing signs, a cough, a fever, etc are tested. The testing is skewed to the sick... and health care workers exposed to the sick.
There is high probability, logical probability, that those untested, those showing no signs, have a high percentage of being coronavirus positive and anti-body positive.
The antibody tests will tell the tale. Representative samples from various parts of the country are all that will be necessary. We will have a more clear picture shortly, but it most likely will not fit the narrative we are currently being sold.
All viruses are wide spread. This is how virus propagation works, folks. It does matter how wide spread it is. It matters what the death rate is and more importantly, if it is the primary reason for death, not just a secondary or tertiary reason when a person died of something completely different who just happened to have a cirus.
JoMa
As people sense this is winding down and as governments take steps to reopen, it will be imperative that the media do everything they can to stoke fears and make opening up sound like a horrible mistake. Watch for them to amplify every death in Texas as we get back to business.
Best chance we have to get even a close picture would be if China came totally clean and we got true numbers from them....and even that would give a skewed picture that wasn't as bad as it could have been.
Saying it was "all a waste" is like a guy who gets a map to avoid bear traps and manages to not step in any by steering clear of them so he only comes withing sight of a couple, saying the map was useless...
My wife and I live in the eastern part of King County where the virus was first identified and caused fatalities here in the USA. We have both volunteered and been payed to work at the ill-fated Life Care Center in Kirkland. The Overlake Hospital Medical Center in Kirkland did become overwhelmed for a few days and had to divert patients to other facilities. I worked as a fire officer for many years... I went to many bad car accidents that put hospitals into divert status.
By the time the governor's “stay at home” order went into effect both the Overlake Medical Center in Kirkland and their primary hospital in Bellevue were back to normal. In fact they both became less busy than normal for this time of year. The temporary hospital set up by the military in Seattle had to be shut down because they never received any patients. The “quarantine center” set up in Everett designed to take in 150 people was shut down because they received a total of 3 people, and not all at the same time.
I don't know what it is like where you are at, but I can tell you that where we are at which was ground zero for this thing in February and March in the USA, the government's restrictions and massive waste of money have been more egregious than I could ever have imagined.
The question is not if the government's effort was and is a waste, but why it was a waste. The question for people here was not if you were going to get the virus, but if and when you thought you already had the virus. Once a highly contagious pathogen becomes as highly widespread in a community as it did here... trying to contain it with the efforts that have been made here make no sense.
The efforts were based on models that relied on false assumptions. When the infection rate is actually 50 to 100 or more times more prevalent and the lethality is 50 to 100 or more times less than predicted then there is obviously going to be serious “inefficiencies” in the reaction. The actual tale will be told by studies done based on antibody tests and it is not likely going to be pretty. But do not worry despite the absolute nonsense we have been subjected to the politicians will still claim that their actions “saved us” all!!!
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