COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California

MedRx IV ^ | 4/14/2020 | Multiple

[NohSpinZone]

These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.

Conclusions: The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.

[NohSpinZone]

Latest research from Stanford. I still think that 50 to 85X number is low. It's likely that there are hundreds of thousands here in Santa Clara County are infected compared to just a thousand or so that are confirmed as COVID-infected.

Oh boy.

[BenLurkin]

But doesn't this mean that the Wuhan Flu is much less deadly than previously reported?

[Rurudyne]

...and the mortality rate falls further and further....

[Shethink13]

But doesn't this mean that the Wuhan Flu is much less deadly than previously reported?

Yep.

[SeekAndFind]

For those who don’t know what the term means — Seroprevalence is the frequency of individuals in a population that have a particular element (such as antibodies to a virus) in their blood serum.

[DEPcom]

Maybe people under 65.

[SeekAndFind]

ASYMPTOMATIC: As Many as 50 Percent of People with COVID-19 Aren’t Aware They Have the Virus

[Vendome]

The death rate using their lowest number 0.00136

Fix that Horse Shit for me and help me understand why we are being fed this crap...?

[thesharkboy]

If true, this would have enormous consequences for the United States, and for the entire world. It will change the approach to this disease completely, except for those governors still out to get the President, of course.

[null and void]

The death rate among those sick enough to seek medical care is still quite high.

That's the only number than can be used to compare to historical epidemics. No one knows, or will ever know, how many people had serum antibodies to the Spanish Influenza or any epidemic prior to antibody tests or PCR.

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

The false positive rate was 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.

[null and void]

If true, this would have enormous consequences for the United States, and for the entire world. It will change the approach to this disease completely, except for those governors still out to get the President, of course.

And those in high risk categories.

Until we can get antibody tests 65+ year old obese, diabetic, high BP me and my 90+ year old mom are going to continue to err on the side of prudence.

That being said, I see no good reason very low risk people need to be locked up. Especially given the reported and poo-pooed successes of HOCQ+Z-Pack (or Cipro for those with cardiac issues)+Zinc+Vitamins C&D₃ treatments!

[Jordo]

A strange study. Yes, a bunch of them have stanford.edu email addresses. I’m not sure this study is “from Stanford”.

I read the author affiliations. It’s not clear any of them are doctors; none have “M.D.” by their names. Maybe some medical students in the mix.

“Health Education is Power, Inc.”, “The Compliance Resouce Group, Inc.”, “Bogan Associates”. Hmm.

They recruited participants from Facebook, adjusted for zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity. That makes it hard to judge the sampling error.

They found antibody prevalence of 1.5%, which they adjusted to 2.81% by “population weighting” — that seems like a pretty significant adjustment.

[RayChuang88]

Look, back in December 2019 to January 2020, there was a lot of “strong” bouts of common cold and influenza in the San Francisco Bay Area, many of them not explainable by the known viruses at the time. (Indeed, my brother had a pretty bad bout with the cold that had many of the symptoms of COVID-19.) This study tells us the virus showed up in December 2019 in California, given the large numbers of mainland Chinese visiting relatives in California over the Western New Years’ holiday period.

[BDParrish]

The death rate among those sick enough to seek medical care is still quite high. That's the only number than can be used to compare to historical epidemics. No one knows, or will ever know, how many people had serum antibodies to the Spanish Influenza or any epidemic prior to antibody tests or PCR.

Excellent observation. My understanding is that Case Fatality Risk is exactly that, a comparison of patients sick enough to seek help.

[Charles H. (The_r0nin)]

My understanding is that Case Fatality Risk is exactly that, a comparison of patients sick enough to seek help.

It's not. The case fatality rate is the number of deaths divided by the number of cases. It is the likelihood that any person getting the disease will potentially die from it, and it is therefore dependent on an accurate count of those who are infected. There is no way to measure "severity" in an objective sense.

[null and void]

Excellent observation. My understanding is that Case Fatality Risk is exactly that, a comparison of patients sick enough to seek help.

That hasn't stopped people on this very forum from using the entire population of the US and even that of the whole world as the denominator to "prove" the Wuhan virus is of negligible risk!

[Mom MD]

Yes

[Vendome]

Oh! Now square this number for me:

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx

1833 known cases ÷ 69 Deaths = 0.037%!!!

Effin not right at all on projections or response.

Why is the West Coast, Can Uh Duh and Mexico not getting their azzez handed to them by this virus???

[Vendome]

Hey, are my numbers right on this thread?

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

Sure does. Start opening up on April 30, but do it gradually. The Wuhan Lab Virus is still contagious enough, and potentially severe enough in vulnerable people, to ensure that hospitals WILL be slammed if you open up all at once without getting treatments like HCQ into circulation, and that’s not going to happen at first - foreign manufacturers want to keep it in country, HCQ is also used for some autoimmune diseases, etc.