Posted on 04/14/2020 8:50:16 PM PDT by Nero Germanicus
One of the hospitalized sailors is in ICU
Four sailors on the San-Diego based aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt are in the hospital with COVID-19, the Navy said Tuesday. One is in intensive care.
The hospital admissions come the day after a member of the crew died of complications of the virus after four days in the ICU. The Defense department has not released the name of the sailor.
The Navy also said Tuesday that 589 of the Roosevelts crew have tested positive for the novel coronavirus. More than 4,000 of the crew have moved moved off the ship into housing on Guam, either in private homes or hotels.
The San Diego-based carrier has a total crew of roughly 4,845 service members, including its embarked air wing and command staff.
(Excerpt) Read more at sandiegouniontribune.com ...
I believe your data is very flawed. Later corrections will show that.
I have no doubt my Daughter, S-in-L and Granddaughter all had it. They live in the small town of State College, PA. That is where Penn State is located with 3,568 students from China. Naturally a large number went home to China for the new year.
When the antibody test is widely distributed and counted the mortality rate will plummet.
You can stop the fear mongering now. You do not have to wait for the truth to hit you like a two-by-four to the head.
It was a joke. Carried by “seamen.”
it’s sorrowful that one sailor apparently died of covid, but you’ll never have a more solid contagion case study.
about 12% infection rate (so far?) from 4845 total sailors resulting in 587 supposed infections (didn’t see details on testing). in very close ship’s quarters for long duration, i’d say that seems very low to me, but maybe others here know better having been on board ship.
.08% serious cases (4)
.02% fatality rate (1)
today is april 14, they pulled in to guam march 26. so 20-21 days since the captain called for help. three weeks. and before that how many days on deployment? in the south china sea on 2/18 according to fleet tracker. later a stop in vietnam in early march.
so i’ll guess that the first infection for early march. so about 21 days since the first infection. so 42 days to the present. that gives me a way to estimate infectivity using this exponential eq and solving for infectivity or X(R0?). X^41(sailor^days) = 587 sailors infected -> X = 587^(1/41) = 1.168 persons infected per day = estimated R0. that’s not very infective i think. so maybe it takes a pool of about 12 persons to infect 1 more per day as one interpretation of this statistic.
at least now i’ve got some rational idea of the infectivity of this new disease. given this estimate based on a solid case, i’m more confident that basic measures should safeguard me and my family in our normal lives until we get a vaccine for this, even if one of us gets it. based on other estimates of R0, this 1.168 is a lot less infective than say SARS which one site estimated to be 4.
That Soviet sailor must have been near death for them to do that. We were pierside in Kiel directly across from a Russian DDG in the mid-nineties. We found out first-hand how brutal they were with their own crew.
It has never once said hi to me, never once visited me, never once invited me over for a drink or dinner. And it is my “friend?”
Amazing. Chinese take out US aircraft carrier with one Vietnamese hooker. Now that is good bang for the buck.
Chinese Communist Act of War. Seems they are also building more naval bases off the coast of Palawan, in the Philippines. They need some intense radiation therapy courtesy of a few SSBNs
Yup. and only 12% infection rate in very close quarters
when total infections are taken into account the fatality rate is less than one percent and may approach the .1 to .2 percent of influenza. We are only testing cases serious enough to require hospitalization
Now THAT was funny!
Got it! I was a little slow on the uptake!
I don’t think that the president was “fear mongering” by declaring a Covid-19 national health emergency. The president has not declared a national health emergency about the seasonal flu.
Time will tell.
THINK about that fact.
[The only difference - sailors aboard the TR are younger and healthier than the general American population]
.6% rate among a group of young people is enough to convince old farts that everyone is at high risk.
Aircraft carriers have a FULL pharmacy for all diseases all over the world. I would guess they have tons of HCQ since they are in tropical regions.
What would the percent by of 61,000 deaths out of 810,000 hospitalizations?
Also to be considered, if tests have mainly been only those with Covid-19 symptoms and often only with a medical pass, while an est. 80% have no symptoms or recover from it without special help, then would not that provide an inaccurate fatality rate since documented
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