Almost 600 Theodore Roosevelt sailors have COVID-19, 4 hospitalized, Navy says

San Diego Union-Tribune ^ | 4/14/20 | Andrew Dyer

[higgmeister]

That’s a fatality rate of 4%.

I believe your data is very flawed.   Later corrections will show that.  

I have no doubt my Daughter, S-in-L and Granddaughter all had it.   They live in the small town of State College, PA.   That is where Penn State is located with 3,568 students from China.   Naturally a large number went home to China for the new year.

When the antibody test is widely distributed and counted the mortality rate will plummet.

You can stop the fear mongering now.   You do not have to wait for the truth to hit you like a two-by-four to the head.

[higgmeister]

Seriously?   Google is sometimes your friend.

[Mr Ramsbotham]

It was a joke. Carried by “seamen.”

[higgmeister]

Just before I got to the Azores, a Soviet Sub surfaced in the harbor and dropped off a Soviet seaman headed to the hospital.   The Portuguese were a little more friendly with them back then.   And yes, they probably were scoping us out. I'm sure the NAF knew of his approach and what he was there for long before he knocked on the door, since that was their mission.

[dadfly]

it’s sorrowful that one sailor apparently died of covid, but you’ll never have a more solid contagion case study.

about 12% infection rate (so far?) from 4845 total sailors resulting in 587 supposed infections (didn’t see details on testing). in very close ship’s quarters for long duration, i’d say that seems very low to me, but maybe others here know better having been on board ship.

.08% serious cases (4)

.02% fatality rate (1)

today is april 14, they pulled in to guam march 26. so 20-21 days since the captain called for help. three weeks. and before that how many days on deployment? in the south china sea on 2/18 according to fleet tracker. later a stop in vietnam in early march.

so i’ll guess that the first infection for early march. so about 21 days since the first infection. so 42 days to the present. that gives me a way to estimate infectivity using this exponential eq and solving for infectivity or X(R0?). X^41(sailor^days) = 587 sailors infected -> X = 587^(1/41) = 1.168 persons infected per day = estimated R0. that’s not very infective i think. so maybe it takes a pool of about 12 persons to infect 1 more per day as one interpretation of this statistic.

at least now i’ve got some rational idea of the infectivity of this new disease. given this estimate based on a solid case, i’m more confident that basic measures should safeguard me and my family in our normal lives until we get a vaccine for this, even if one of us gets it. based on other estimates of R0, this 1.168 is a lot less infective than say SARS which one site estimated to be 4.

[GreyHoundSailor]

That Soviet sailor must have been near death for them to do that. We were pierside in Kiel directly across from a Russian DDG in the mid-nineties. We found out first-hand how brutal they were with their own crew.

[Fungi]

It has never once said hi to me, never once visited me, never once invited me over for a drink or dinner. And it is my “friend?”

[justa-hairyape]

Amazing. Chinese take out US aircraft carrier with one Vietnamese hooker. Now that is good bang for the buck.

[Starcitizen]

Chinese Communist Act of War. Seems they are also building more naval bases off the coast of Palawan, in the Philippines. They need some intense radiation therapy courtesy of a few SSBNs

[Mom MD]

Yup. and only 12% infection rate in very close quarters

[Mom MD]

when total infections are taken into account the fatality rate is less than one percent and may approach the .1 to .2 percent of influenza. We are only testing cases serious enough to require hospitalization

[Nero Germanicus]

Now THAT was funny!

[Nero Germanicus]

Got it! I was a little slow on the uptake!

[Nero Germanicus]

I don’t think that the president was “fear mongering” by declaring a Covid-19 national health emergency. The president has not declared a national health emergency about the seasonal flu.

[Nero Germanicus]

Time will tell.

[philman_36]

ONE ship. Out of the whole of the Navy ONE ship has an issue.
(that's all that's being reported on anyway)

THINK about that fact.

[Zhang Fei]

[The only difference - sailors aboard the TR are younger and healthier than the general American population]

---

7.8% of the military is overweight. 70% of the civilian population is overweight. And because the virus takes up to 6 weeks to work its magic, we won’t know the final hospitalization numbers and death toll for the crew until the end of April or the beginning of May.

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2016/09/11/the-u-s-military-has-a-huge-problem-with-obesity-and-it-s-only-getting-worse/

[central_va]

.6% rate among a group of young people is enough to convince old farts that everyone is at high risk.

[DCBryan1]

Aircraft carriers have a FULL pharmacy for all diseases all over the world. I would guess they have tons of HCQ since they are in tropical regions.

[daniel1212]

In an average year, 0.1% to 0.2% of people with seasonal flu die from it. As of yesterday in the U.S.A. there were 614,117 documented cases of coronavirus and 26,059 people have died. That’s a fatality rate of 4%.

What would the percent by of 61,000 deaths out of 810,000 hospitalizations?

Also to be considered, if tests have mainly been only those with Covid-19 symptoms and often only with a medical pass, while an est. 80% have no symptoms or recover from it without special help, then would not that provide an inaccurate fatality rate since documented