This is where the world is in respect to their cases ( if you believe the data coming out from China ):
And here is the timeline for Vaccine Development:
Posted on 04/13/2020 6:57:08 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Good news on a national basis, but this offer may be void where numbers are looking more prohibitive. “We are nearing the peak now,” CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield told Savannah Guthrie on NBC’s Today, as the country progresses through its planned 45 day effort to “flatten the curve.” Redfield warns that the only way to know the peak is to see it in the rear-view mirror, but the numbers are “stabilizing” — nationally, anyway.
The question isn’t just when we reopen, Redfield warns, but also where:
“We are nearing the peak right now.” Watch @CDCDirector’s full interview with @savannahguthrie about if he thinks we’ve hit the peak of the coronavirus yet, when the country could start reopening and much more. pic.twitter.com/hZdWDKSbSb
— TODAY (@TODAYshow) April 13, 2020
Redfield says what Anthony Fauci and Jerome Adams have been saying all along, which is that we will need both virus and antibody testing before widely reopening public squares. The former will be needed to identify acute infections before they become cases necessary for hospitalization; the latter will be needed to ensure that contagion doesn’t spread asymptomatically. The timeline makes that point very clearly, as Redfield notes. The CDC didn’t see the first US cases of community transmission until February 28th, which is when they first pushed for social-distancing mitigation in those hot spots. By that time, however, community transmission had already begun to explode exponentially.
That pattern matters to the plan for America’s grand re-opening, because we are a nation of vastly distant communities. An eruption in any of them will quickly spread, restarting the exponential cycle all over again. And while the news is getting better from New York and New Jersey, some other communities are just now starting to see increases in infection rates — such as right here in Minnesota, which saw its largest number of new cases in a day yesterday:
Minnesota reported more than 100 new cases of COVID-19 on Sunday, the first triple-digit daily increase since the novel coronavirus appeared in the state just over a month ago.
While Minnesota has thus far avoided the grim toll in hot spots around the country, the numbers continue to grow here. Six newly reported deaths brought the total to 70, about two-thirds of them people in congregate care settings. The number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals increased to a new high of 157, including 74 in intensive care.
A total of 1,621 cases of the viral illness have been confirmed by tests in Minnesota. The actual number of cases is believed to be much higher, but that statistic is unknowable because there isn’t enough testing to reach a reliable estimate.
This is the downside to flattening an exponential curve. It lowers the peak but lengthens the curve. This phenomenon was part of the original calculations, of course; the idea of flattening the curve was to gain time to build health-care resources and to develop tests and treatments, if not vaccines. In that we have succeeded, but Minnesota is now becoming a bigger threat for seeding more outbreaks — slightly, anyway.
As Redfield says, the re-opening won’t necessarily be grand, and some will have to wait their turns. More likely, we will see reopening of some activities across the board in the first week of May, but especially in places like Minnesota, on a very limited basis until case numbers drop and reliable testing gets put in place. If not, we might be looking in our rear-view mirrors so long that we run smack into the next apex.
Yeh just like with the seasonal flu every year about this time. My 97 year old mother could have predicted that.
The peak is after everyone who is going to die from this does.
I think I see waves in the data so it is possible we are seeing a lull between waves.
I am not sold that this isn’t a hoax. In order to believe this is a hoax, I need the flu bros to answer this, why would President Trump lie to us?
Its real
Now was our reaction overblown? Maybe, but if we didn’t react the way we did, would we be seeing 2-20 million deaths?
This virus just killed a sailor on a navy ship, last time I checked our navy isn’t full of geriatric grandpas with heart conditions. This virus is way more nastier then the flu.
Yeah, I think this is the “statistics” part of “lies, damned lies, and statistics”.
I’m convinced that most CV19 deaths are really something else and/or affecting people that already have one foot in the grave.
I consider the whole thing bad, but NOTHING compared to what we are being told it is. This was never about the virus. It was about taking away rights and control. I’ll have none of it.
Fortunately, for me it’s all been positive. I’m living the same lifestyle I always did, except I’m avoiding a three hour daily commute and a tank of gas every two days in favor of working from home. It’s all good!
And last wednesday they started building the 30x50 garage on my property. It should be done this Wednesday.
“This virus just killed a sailor on a navy ship, last time I checked our navy isn’t full of geriatric grandpas with heart conditions. This virus is way more nastier then the flu.”
It is real. This is a nasty bug. I never said it was a hoax?
Our reaction, as far as I can figure out, is way overblown. The fact that the public rolled over for the political class is a bonus, it’s not the intent. The intent, I believe was to be overly cautious so as to avoid any blame. If they end up nuking the economy, they’ll just get a different kind of blame.
Have you been in the Navy? I have. There are lots of older sailors, sailors with underlying conditions, and more fat bast*rds than you’d imagine.
Sounds like a man concerned about keeping his job after Tony Fauci loses his.
Looks like California is starting to take off.
CDC Director: “We Are Nearing The Peak”, “ What can we do to keep the hype going.
A more honest statement.
I can't wait to get back to the office and the normal routines. I miss the bustle of the office environment, the interaction with co-workers, the excellent coffee, the visits to client locations, eating at restaurants and even just grabbing a beer at the end of the day for the long train ride home (I work in NYC).
Do they let you drink on the train?...or do you use a brown paper bag? /s
I see a definite decline with a few spikes. Once NY and NJ decrease further, the national data will follow accordingly. These two states account for more than half of the deaths and 40% of the cases. It is the epicenter of the virus similar to Hubei province and Wuhan in China. We are over the hump.
Peak?
The peak will occur when the number of recoveries exceeds the number of new cases. This has not happened yet. What we are looking at now is a leveling-off of the INCREASE in NEW CASES. This is good, but we are not really at the peak.
We do need to understand why this trend is occurring. Is it because of: 1) the widespread shelter in place, 2) evolution of the virus to a less infectious form, 3) warmer/hotter weather, or 4) widespread use of effective medicines?
Except on St. Patrick's Day and on "Santa Suit" day. The latter is a day around Christmas in which for some strange reason, thousands of suburban young men dress in Santa Claus suits and go bar-hopping in town. They get quite rowdy on the train ride home.
It takes several weeks and perhaps over a month to be considered "recovered," i.e., two negative tests.
Currently,we have 505,684 active cases with 32,634 recovered and 22,115 deaths. Yesterday we had 27,421 new cases. On Feb 15 we had a total of 15 cases and on March 10, 290 new daily cases.
The 32,634 total recoveries exceed now the daily new cases of 27,421. But if you mean that daily recoveries must exceed daily new cases then for that to happen, we would be well past the peak.
We do need to understand why this trend is occurring. Is it because of: 1) the widespread shelter in place, 2) evolution of the virus to a less infectious form, 3) warmer/hotter weather, or 4) widespread use of effective medicines?
The trend may also be occurring because of herd immunity. There have been some small studies done in CA and Germany indicating that there are far many more people who have had the virus and recovered or are asymptomatic. Also the vast majority of deaths are among those 70 and older. In NY the epicenter of the pandemic in the world, there has been only one death under the age of 10, 6 between the ages of 10-19, and 48 between the ages of 20-29. 83.9% of the deaths are people 60 and over.
Wow...I did not know that...makes the ride more bearable!
This is not over yet. The virus is not cured, just slowed down.
. . . and it won’t be over until/unless there is a highly effective vaccine or treatment. Which is to say, “Not soon, maybe never.”What is certain is that not reopening is fabulously expensive - and the longer it’s delayed, the less the country’s ability to pay the piper for this enforced, and for many not notably pleasant, “vacation."
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