UK Coronavirus Caccine could be ready by September, claims Oxford professor; "80% Confident It Works"

MSN ^ | 04/11/2020 | Zara Whelan

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An Oxford professor says she is “80%" confident the coronavirus vaccine she is working on will be successful - and could be ready by September.

Sarah Gilbert, a professor of vaccinology, is leading a team of researchers and said they have a potential vaccine that is due to begin human trials within two weeks.

In an interview with The Times, Prof Gilbert said the autumn timeframe is “just about possible if everything goes perfectly”.

She added: "It's not just a hunch and as every week goes by we have more data to look at. I would go for 80%, that's my personal view," but warned that "nobody can promise it's going to work".

Other scientists have welcomed the news with “cautious optimism”, and highlighted that investment in production, distribution and delivery would be key to enable a mass rollout.

While not commenting directly on the Oxford trial, the Department of Health has said if vaccines prove to be safe and effective in clinical trials, there are a number of manufacturing and supply chain options available to meet the projected demands.

Professor Stephen Evans, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said having a vaccine ready and proven to be safe is one thing, but availability in the millions of doses required for large-scale rollout across the UK with a system for delivery is a different matter.

Dr Colin Butter, associate professor and programme leader in bioveterinary science at the University of Lincoln, said it is important to understand there would not be “60-odd million doses” by September to vaccinate the entire population of the UK.

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I’m fully aware of the chequered history of vaccines & I remember that particular debacle well. It goes to show the need for proper double-blind clinical trials. They rushed the Swine flu vaccine out the door, without proper testing. No argument from me — that was a mistake. That history is part of the reason, to the chagrin of many here, I’ve written several posts on the importance of doing clinical trials on the effectiveness of HCQ & Zn (in parallel with giving those drugs to any infected person who wants them).

I left all that out in my posts; in the interest of brevity. In this case, the Professor had reached an 80% confidence in the vaccine to date, in the context of the further testing he intended to do (one assumes, with the goal of reaching 100% confidence). I suppose I could have included something like: “assuming, for the sake of this conversation, that the vaccine will ultimately be ‘proven’ safe and effective”.

When, or if, a vaccine is developed, I’ll take it — unless I think it was rushed out the door for reasons of political expediency. That doesn’t mean that I believe all vaccines are safe. It always comes down to a balance of risks — the risk of a bad vaccine on one side, the risk of dying of the Wuhan virus on the other.