Posted on 04/09/2020 7:28:22 PM PDT by nickcarraway
MKM Partners' Eric Handler downgrades the stock to a "sell," estimating its "cash burn rate in a no-revenue environment is running at $155 million per month, which likely keeps AMC liquid until June/July." Wall Street analysts are seeing a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing from cinema giant AMC Theatres as increasingly likely.
MKM Partners analyst Eric Handler on Thursday downgraded his rating on shares of the exhibitor from "neutral" to "sell," saying that "bankruptcy appears likely."
That followed Loop Capital analyst Alan Gould's Wednesday downgrade to a "sell" in a report that concluded: "We think bankruptcy is a distinct possibility, and at a minimum, the company will require a highly-dilutive financing."
Handler in his Thursday report explained: "Based on our view that theaters will be closed until at least August and our belief that AMC lacks the liquidity to stay afloat until that time, we expect the company will soon be faced with filing for bankruptcy. Further fueling our liquidity concerns is AMC's decision to stop paying rents to landlords effective April."
AMC, in which Chinese conglomerate Dalian Wanda Group owns a majority voting stake, has been looking for various ways to reduce costs, in late March furloughing all of its 600 corporate employees, including CEO Adam Aron, following the closure of all its cinemas. It had earlier already cut its dividend by 85 percent.
WATCH AMC Closes All U.S. Theaters Amid Spread of Coronavirus | THR News PLAY VIDEO Handler said though that even if AMC is able to tap government bailout funds, as management has signaled it plans to do, "we believe the weight of its balance sheet will make for tough sledding given the company's high leverage, thus making a reorganization inevitable." That comment was a reference to a potential Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing, which leads companies, their lenders and a court to develop a restructuring plan.
Handler highlighted that AMC, which he called "the exhibition company we view with the least financial flexibility," at the end of 2019 had $265 million of cash on hand and $332 million available on its credit lines for a total of nearly $600 million. "We believe the company's monthly cash burn rate in a no-revenue environment is running at $155 million per month, which likely keeps AMC liquid until June/July," he concluded.
Handler cut his fair value estimate for AMC's stock from $7.50 to $1 and lowered his first-quarter financial estimates. He cut his adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization estimates to a loss of $13 million, compared with a year-ago profit of $108 million. His revenue estimate went down to $931 million, reflecting "a domestic box office decline of 26 percent as theaters have been shuttered since mid-March and a 20 percent decline internationally."
Handler also cut his 2020 outlook for AMC's adjusted EBITDA to a loss of $293 million, compared with a $771 million profit in 2019. Full-year revenue he expects to fall 44 percent to $3.05 billion. The revisions assume cinemas remain closed until August.
Ah, the drive-in. Brings back fun memories!
One of my favorite Netflix shows is Lilyhammer. Check it out.
With all on Streaming video, comfy, snack, at home why go to a overpriced, loud, can’t hit pause, dangerous lighting issues, cell phones ring,, kids screaming, kicking back of yourseat theater. Not been nor plan to in the next 20 yrs.
“My bet is drive-ins will make a comeback.”
The critical factor — Digital projectors cost $$$$$.
Drive-in customers I’ve seen tend not to be too picky about audio and video quality. The experience can be more fun than the movie sometimes. :-)
And a lot if folks don’t go to watch the movies if you get my meaning.
Some things never change, though NYS window tint regs might put some brakes on that...
What you said. Going the way of Blockbuster. Shopping malls in general to follow suit.
I DO know what you mean ;)
A place we youts went to long ago: http://cinematreasures.org/theaters/29631
Can you be any more of an elitist douche? Money has very little to do with class or grace.
You're probably broke too.
Yep. I have a beautiful big screen, surround-sound, and non-sticky floors. No more movie theater for me.
True. We can’t do 3D at home yet. Someone needs to perfect that. Last movie I saw at the theater was The Martian in 3D. It was amazing. My first 3D movie.
“True. We cant do 3D at home yet.”
This is not correct. I watch 3D in my home theater and it’s fantastic. It takes a lot to make it work.
What you need:
1. A room you can get dark, real dark ambient light is the enemy.
2. A Projector that can do 3D with compatible glasses. You can get these on ebay. buy them together to make sure they match.
3. a 100” screen. For 3D to work you have to fill your field of vision this is critical. Otherwise the image just looks like a weird hole in the room.
4. A Blu Ray DVD player that can play 3D Blu Ray
In my view a projector is the only way to go for home theater. A 100” TV would cost many thousands.
Finding 3D titles is not that easy since it has been almost
abandoned since it it didn’t catch on because for it to work
well you have to do all this. But you can still rent many titles online from here:
https://www.store-3d-blurayrental.com/default.asp
I have rented a lot of movies from them and I have no complaints takes a few days and it comes with a paid postage return sleeve.
Good Luck
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