Posted on 04/09/2020 12:31:45 PM PDT by Kaslin
RUSH: They owe us an explanation. Now, I touched on this yesterday. We are owed a huge explanation. So, 2.2 million deaths. “Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Oh, my God, 2.2. We gotta shut it down. And if we mitigate, maybe 240,000 deaths. If we social distance, we stay at home, if we shut down, if we wear masks, we do all this stuff, maybe a hundred thousand to 200,000, maybe 240,000.” Guess what?
Sixty thousand. “Fauci Slashes U.S. Death Projection, Raising Hope for Reopening.” The doomsayers get to get away with everything. “Fauci Slashes U.S. Death Projection, Raising Hope for Reopening.” What is wrong with this headline? Does Dr. Fauci have anything to do with reopening? Yes. That’s what’s wrong with the headline. This is a Bloomberg News story. “Top infectious disease official credits social distancing.” I’m gonna start calling BS on this.
Now, don’t misunderstand. I’m not saying it’s not important. I’m not saying it’s not relevant. But there is no way social distancing has made the difference in 2.2 million down to 60,000 dead. There is no way that social distancing made the difference from 240,000 dead projected now down to 60,000 dead. And what do you bet that number gets revised down in the coming days? There has to be something else going on here, and it has to be the projections were wrong in the first place because of the models, and we know that they were wrong.
But these guys get to revise their projections and hold on to their expertise status throughout the entire process. I just don’t believe social distancing has suddenly changed the data that lowers the forecast death toll from 240,000 to 60,000. We’re not stupid here.
And I’ll give you another bit of evidence for why I don’t believe this. California, oh, man, is this a huge See, I Told You So. Stanford researchers are now thinking, you know what, maybe it was herd immunity. Maybe the virus has been in California since last fall, and maybe in California they’ve developed an immunity to it, herd immunity. Most of the people that have been exposed to it got antibodies ’cause it makes no sense that in a state of 40 million the death toll is still under – I forget what it was — 750 a few days ago. It’s phenomenally low.
In the state of Oregon practically statistically zero deaths. And it’s not because of social distancing. They told us, they tried to tell us that social distancing is what made the difference in California. California had a two-day head start on social distancing over New York. New York has more deaths than Italy. Are you telling me — see, we’re not stupid here. And you aren’t, either. You’re telling me that a two-day head start on social distancing in California is the reason why there are so few deaths in California compared to New York?
The data is bad. The input data was bad. We told you this my first day back. When I found out that that U.K. modeler could change his outcome from 500,000 dead in the U.K. to 20,000 dead simply by factoring in social distancing, then what good was the first model? And if the model has that wide a variance, if you can input one data point and create this massive shift in outcomes on the model, what good’s the model?
But these people get to hold on to their expert status throughout all of these revisions. They haven’t been right from the get-go. But the doomsayers are never wrong because whatever ends up happening, they can claim credit for it because of their mistakes. “Well, yeah, of course we overshot, but because we overshot we scared the hell out of people, people social distanced, people stayed home. Of course our work is responsible for this.” It’s just the way it works. And everybody got scared. Can’t blame ’em. Everybody got scared into using the data that was trumpeted, put out.
But we are owed an explanation.
“One of President Donald Trump’s top medical advisers slashed projections for U.S. coronavirus deaths on Thursday, saying that only about 60,000 –” And, by the way, I don’t mean to say that 60,000 is insignificant. Those are people. They are loved ones. They are part of families. I’m not trying to be cavalier about it. I’m simply talking about the statistics and the numbers.
Remember, we started with 2.2 million, and they did that on purpose so that they could show great success, 2.2 million, now 60,000. Look at the great work. No. That’s not the way to look at because 2.2 was never an active, real number, and we shut down a $22 trillion economy because of it. And now the death is 60,000, which is on par with the number of flu deaths in America every year.
They told us that this week, remember, “This is gonna be… oh ho, the next two weeks it’s gonna be armageddon, it’s gonna be the apocalypse, it’s like gonna be bad.” And in these two weeks they’re revising everything down. Remember, they said these two weeks, you better expect the worst. We may not have a country after these next tweaks. There may not be enough people to go back work. It’s gonna be bad, it’s gonna be really, really bad out there.”
Now they’re revising the numbers down, the death numbers down during the apocalypse week. It’s a Bloomberg story, by the. “The falling projection, the result of aggressive social distancing behaviors Americans adopted to curb the spread of the virus, may accelerate Trump’s effort to develop a plan to urge Americans to leave their homes and return to work next month.”
I’ll tell you something I’m a little worried about. How many people are gonna be scared to leave their homes? How many Millennials are gonna be scared to death to leave? They’re scared to death anyway. They make up the snowflake generation. They’re scared by a shadow of a conservative on a college campus. It doesn’t even take a real conservative to scare ’em on a campus, just the shadow of one. And if they’re scared of a conservative shadow on a college campus, are they gonna be scared to go back to work? Be concerned. We’ll have to wait and see if it happens.
So here’s Dr. Fauci. “The real data…”
The real data? Oh, we’re talking about real data now?
“The real data are telling us that it is highly likely that we’re having a definite positive effect by this mitigation things that we’re doing — this physical separation — so I believe we are gonna see a downturn in that. And it looks more like the 60,000 than the 100,000 to 200,000. But having said that, we better be careful that we don’t say, ‘OK, we’re doing so well we can pull back.'”
Uh… I… (sigh) Folks, they’re gonna have to explain this, and I know how they’re gonna do it. The doomsayers are gonna tell us, “Hey,” they’re already setting the stage for doing it, “our policies, our requests for social distancing and all that made all the difference.” I don’t…
If we’re gonna say that, that means we have to trust the computer modeling data and that’s the data that’s been all over the place, 2.2 million, 200,000, 100,000, 240,000, 500,000 U.K. The numbers have been all over the place, revised down
I have to go mail my taxes now at the Post Office. All the precautions need to be taken as described in my prior post.
I’m not in fear for myself.... but I have elderly parents in their lae 80’s. I have to be ready in case somethng happens, and thus can’t afford to be sick, and I certainly would like to spare them having to contract this virus. So I wear protective gear when in public.
The annual GDP of the U.S. is $20 Trillion. That helps put the $2 Trillion bail-out and $4 Trillion from the Fed in context. And don’t forget that we don’t have any of this money either - it will all be borrowed and we were over our heads in debt already. I don’t fault the president for being optimistic. That’s what a good leader does, but there is no way the economy will be back to normal in a few months. People not paying their rent means landlords can’t pay their mortgages, then the banks take a hit. Banks will fail. Artists have no gigs until the fall, can’t buy food or pay for housing. Many of these businesses will never reopen. The St. Louis Fed estimates 30% unemployment. Are you reading about the crime in our big cities? I can send you articles/data if you want. Very serious situation. No point in terrifying the public, we need for them to be calm, but this is going to be tough and I think most folks have no idea....
“How many were healthy and strong and vigorous with no underlying issues?”
Seeing as they were all fire fighters, I would suspect most, if not all of them are. So glad they didn’t bear the brunt of it.
“...I know people who have died from it...”
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Where do you live?
Not a clue on your “about” page..
No models, projections, theories, or forecasts. Just numbers.
On a simple linear scale for those who don't understand log scales.
What is your point?
Well then if you and FormerFRLurker are right we’re on target to zoom far, far past 60K total deaths and Fauci is lying.
So.....which is it?
“I’m not in fear for myself.... but I have elderly parents in their late 80’s.”
My wife helps out with elderly folks (including her mom). I do the shopping for all of them (three sets plus ours). I shop in full PPE and have been since the first week of March. I’m not “afraid” - just doing what I think is prudent. Much like putting on my seat belt. I’m not afraid of getting into an accident but I put on my seat belt.
I know other older folks that go to a few stores every day without any PPE as that is their only form of “getting out”. To each their own I guess. Except one of them is in contact with my young-adult daughter. He has a cough now she says. Hoping that her young healthy immune system will keep her safe.
Explain to me why the economy will collapse if deaths pile up.
Crank out some vaccine?
Fauci and Birx have been trying to come up with an AIDS vaccine for thirty frickin’ years, without success. What makes you think they’ll have one for this in less than 18 months?
Maybe, but you still put your faith in people who are three-decade failures to come up with one?
I would highly recommend you watch Bill Whittle’s new YT video on this subject, then let’s discuss.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6N-E-TQ4kA
We are still in exponential growth. It's too soon to pop champagne corks.
Below is a LOG chart, as of today. Just data, not projections or models.
EXACTLY!
Thing is, the numbers aren’t just lower because of social distancing. They’re lower because we now have therapeutics being deployed that we didn’t have four weeks ago (or didn’t know we could use.)
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