[semantic]

Like a lagging indicator, these kinds of opinion pieces are simply mirroring existing trends and emerging reality. In other words, Trump is going to give the go signal within a week, perhaps something as symbolic as this Easter Sunday.

Will it be because of the growing chorus of wailing cries demanding social freedom and economic liberty? Perhaps, but the main reason will be simpler: there's no there, there.

Here's what it looks like graphically. We are currently tracking Italy by 8 days (from dates of first CV deaths). In order to match the scary IHME model estimates, we'd have to go back and track Italy by 18 days. Yeah, those days where they were experiencing high double digit growth in fatalities and were sort of out of control.

It's done; time to move on. We have massive capacity coming quickly on line in terms of facilities, staffing, equipment, supplies, as well as expanding clinical knowledge, to directly attack/control the virus. If any hotspots were to (re)emerge, we now have the ability to focus & direct resources towards any specific cities/regions.

Get your masks ready, boys & girls, and get ready to rumble.

[Cap Huff]

I don’t know whether you caught it or not, but I believe Birx indicated in yesterday’s press conference that we are about 12 days behind Italy on the curve. Your figure of 8 has been a good calculation, but I wonder whether you might consider moving your estimates in that direction.

As I gather, that would mean that the figures would worsen (not as much as 18 as you mentioned yesterday) but might be more in line with the actual decision making figures used by the administration.

Thanks for your insight on these threads.