However being from NY he is smart enough to know that NY is extremely different than the rest of the country modeling the entire nation after NY is a HUGE mistake!!!
> However being from NY he is smart enough to know that NY is extremely different than the rest of the country modeling the entire nation after NY is a HUGE mistake!!!
I was left with the impression that this was not a choice, but that the model is being driven (as much as possible) by the data (as the doctors stated).
The data is that the overwhelming number of USA cases and the overwhelming number of USA deaths are now and will for the forseeable near term future (that is, in all probability, no matter what people do or do not do) that the model covers, are mathematically dominated by the numbers coming out of New York, and specifically, the New York metropolitan area, defined by NYC, adjoining areas of New Jersey, and to a somewhat lesser extent, adjoining areas of Connecticut. IOW only a miracle now could change the model and the role of NY/NYC numbers in the model.
Take for example California. All of us in California could jump up and down, wear masks, spray each other with disinfectant, stay at home, or perhaps even not. At this point in time, the model projection trajectory has already mostly been set by choices made at the state level weeks ago.
This is not to say that the model might be tweaked in the future. However, the model is the best indicator that they have at the moment for making decisions going forward. They are forced to make decisions based on imperfect data. (This is of course par for the course in business and public policy.) I imagine they will continue to tweak the model assumptions and turn the crank as time goes on and the information coming in make such tweaks warranted.
Also Trump did say that they are leaving as many decisions to the individual states as possible. I suspect most states already know that New York containing as it does NYC is a special case, and they are already taking that into consideration when addressing their specific state strategies. Trump did mention that the feds would step in if they sensed that the states were going off course too much (in their judgment). And it does seem that individual states are adopting different strategies— nobody is doing one size fits all strategy or suggesting that that should be done at this time.