L8r
I think the only realistic way to assess this unusual situation is to strip away the particular name and origin which gives this outbreak an identity that other more ordinary influenza outbreaks do not or did not have, then compare results in total to the results in total for other years. Otherwise we will design a response that is such a bad precedent that we might never see a return to a normal economy, as more particular names are likely to be assigned to future “routine” flu outbreaks (if anything that kills thousands of people can really be considered routine).
A background objective should be the ability to identify at an early stage and neutralize all such outbreaks in the future. But we can’t be closing down the economy for every individual case, time after time. Should it have been done here or is this just a case of “this year’s similar thing is different?” ... hard to answer this. How do you answer it? If in fact fewer people die this winter than in a “normal” winter but most of them die from this COVID-19 outbreak, where does that leave us?
Closing down the optional parts of the economy for long periods of time is no small thing either. The focus needs to shift as quickly as possible to containment and neutralization in badly affected places and settings. A phased return to normalcy needs to be designed to minimize the spread beyond those already compromised areas. Otherwise the economic response will be far worse than we might imagine at this early stage.