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To: SeekAndFind

So, am I to assume that in a city of 10 Million people plus its suburbs, that none of them have ever passed away before from anything other than bat gazpacho flu?

China reported a death rate (TOTAL) of 7000 per 1,000,000 people in 2017. Wuhan + surrounding area, say 14 Million?

In a TYPICAL year, that part of the world will deal with 98,000 human remains from all causes. Not saying the chicoms are telling the truth, but some of the alarmist crap needs to be thought upon...


10 posted on 03/30/2020 7:46:13 AM PDT by L,TOWM (An upraised middle finger is my virtue signal.)
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To: L,TOWM

RE: So, am I to assume that in a city of 10 Million people plus its suburbs,

Make that 11 million people ( latest estimate ). 3 million more than our largest city — NYC.


12 posted on 03/30/2020 7:47:20 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (look at Michigan, it will)
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To: L,TOWM

[So, am I to assume that in a city of 10 Million people plus its suburbs, that none of them have ever passed away before from anything other than bat gazpacho flu?

China reported a death rate (TOTAL) of 7000 per 1,000,000 people in 2017. Wuhan + surrounding area, say 14 Million?

In a TYPICAL year, that part of the world will deal with 98,000 human remains from all causes. Not saying the chicoms are telling the truth, but some of the alarmist crap needs to be thought upon...]


No telling what the Wuhan deaths are, normally, without access to official Chinese stats but deaths for China as a whole were 7.14 per 1000 population in 2019. Wuhan has 11m people, so monthly deaths would be 7.14 x 11,000 / 12 = 6,545. Assuming the numbers cover a 3 month period, and the low estimate of 42,000 urns over that period, that’s 42,000 - 3 x 6,545 = 22,365 excess deaths over the normal run-of-the-mill death numbers, which is likely explicable by the covid-19 pandemic. And that’s just in Wuhan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China#Table_of_births_and_deaths_1950%E2%80%932019

What about the rest of the province? And the rest of China? My guess is a minimum of the low hundreds of thousands. Based on the numbers we’re seeing out of Italy, and merely multiplying by 20 to size up to China’s population, I’d say a minimum of 200,000 deaths.

Boris Johnson, presumably using MI-6 sources, both sigint and humint, postulates that the total Chinese death toll is 40x the published numbers. That would bring it to the 120K level.

FYI, the flu numbers are a guess. As in they take pneumonia deaths and assume the flu for some %, despite the vast majority of the deceased not having been tested for flu viruses. The actual positive tests are in the hundreds per year. The rest of the tens of thousands of flu deaths are a guess.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Whereas every death coded as covid-19 is an actual. There might be any number of covid-19 deaths that were coded as pneumonia and not tested for the covid-19, but they aren’t in the covid-19 deaths number.


21 posted on 03/30/2020 7:55:32 AM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: L,TOWM; camle; Alkhin; Professional Engineer; katana; Mr. Silverback; MadIvan; agrarianlady; ...
...anything other than bat gazpacho flu?

Red Dwarf Ping!


33 posted on 03/30/2020 8:22:41 AM PDT by null and void (By the pricking of my lungs, Something wicked this way comes ...)
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