Posted on 03/30/2020 2:55:56 AM PDT by dalight
When considering that possibility patterns in CDC’s regular ILI (Influenza Like Illness) surveillance data become interesting. I’ve taken their data, and applied my meager Excel skills to chart out some things that surprised me. Going into this, I expected to see mortality rates somewhere bump. Prior to January we weren’t looking for this virus. We’ve only had useful testing capability for a few weeks now. Given the information we have on disease progression, I assumed that there would be an upward trend in Pneumonia mortality as without looking for and testing for SARS-COV-2, victims should have been classified as deaths due to pneumonia. So I charted it, with the last 6 years of data published by CDC.
CDC calls week 40 of a year the beginning of the flu season, so all my charts are set to begin in week 40 of one year and end in week 39 of the next, showing years as flu seasons.
There is the customary increase at week 1, I assume related to holiday festivities and travel. However the 2019-2020 season shows week by week pneumonia mortality to be low compared to the last few years, which is not what I expected. What I truly did not expect was the sharp decline over the last few weeks.
I next looked at all-cause mortality. Perhaps COVID-19 deaths hadn’t been captured in the pneumonia data. But surely something this virulent would show somewhere. I was again, surprised.
(Excerpt) Read more at accordingtohoyt.com ...
Italy has a significantly older population than the US is only caveat I’d note to what you list. I’m also not convinced we are several weeks behind Italy - maybe 1 to 2 weeks. We have an insanely large # of Chinese visitors to Seattle/SF/LA/NYC each and every day and it’s likely this thing has been here since December or early January. That said, 100k deaths +-50k seems reasonable to me.
Injury and death from vehicle accidents must be down. NHTSA looks like a champ! Until the rebound.
I would think death from heart, cancer, and disease other than respiratory will be about the same. Overdoses about the same. I don;t know what that subotoal amounts to per week.
Explain this data to me. Last week there were 9,748 people killed by the virus. Where is that on your first chart?
That looks like a reporting/recording lag to me, not a drop.
another thought on this year’s curve is on the january dip relative to other years.
in my mental wayback machine, i do not specifically recall very significant change of my personal habits. however i do distinctly recall the big uptick in the stock market. so, i wonder if the january dip has more to do with the big stock market uptick having a positive effect on folks’ life outlook than with any change in social habits related to covid-19.
(could one go back to 2001 and 2008 to see if there were similar dips? the weeks and seasons of the year would not line up well...)
That was the projection delivered yesterday. 80-180,000 total in the US. Fauci and Birx provide the input to the model that delivers that result, so the values are basically "theirs," which of course is based on work of many more people.
I think a significant part of the data in is garbage. Not to say the virus isn't a serious risk. Just quibbling over the magnitude.
Doctors are taking Plaquenil proactively. It really is working.
we should expect the peak in the next 2-3 weeks.
There are lots of hotspots that could sustain this for a few weeks as their cases grow.>>>>
i just thot of this also. Mayber there are a whole lot of old folks who are in their houses and are dead but haven’t been found yet? /s lol
Graph is for US only, and the TOTAL deaths by WuFlu in the US is around 2,000 total. No way did 9,748 people die in the US, of WuFlu, last week.
If you look at traffic fatalities and note there is no traffic and no accidents of consequence, due to Stay At Home orders, then, yes, our COVID response has stopped normal death rates on that, and flu, cold, etc.
It’s pretty easy to understand.
Maybe we could step up precautions in Dec and Jan every year.
“perhaps some of the policies will become permanent?”
Indeed.
And people who are watching policy changes will recognize opportunities and ride that wave to create new businesses and societal models that will generate new wealth for themselves and others.
Americans are darn good at innovation and applying entrepreneurial skills.
No national shutdowns in previous years.
LOve to see that someone did this. I was wondering if there would be such an effect!
Looks good, but the decrease in overall deaths is hard to believe. Data reporting problem?
You're right, my mistake.
Its the CDC official numbers. Frankly, auto deaths are very likely off because no one is driving. And pneumonia isn’t the only way to die.. so prolly impacting othere infectious diseases.. but not a reporting error.. dead is dead.. hard to fake those numbers.
How many $millions per life saved? Well, there’s that.
That’s the message I am seeing.
I think you are confusing US statistics with World Statistics
I don’t trust anything coming from the CDC, they are more concerned with Climate Change than this Pandemic.
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