Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted
New England Journal of Medicine ^ | March 26, 2020 | Anthony S. Fauci

Posted on 03/29/2020 7:00:50 PM PDT by FoxInSocks

If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.

(Excerpt) Read more at nejm.org ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: fauci
So with a brief caveat and assumption, Fauci now says it’s just a “severe seasonal flu.”
1 posted on 03/29/2020 7:00:50 PM PDT by FoxInSocks
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: FoxInSocks

Did he actually say that now?


2 posted on 03/29/2020 7:05:00 PM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin (Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FoxInSocks

That editorial was published Feb 28. I do not believe this is his current position, and if it is, he is talking some awfully high numbers of case fatalities.


3 posted on 03/29/2020 7:06:56 PM PDT by freebirth (If ignorance is bliss that could explain why I'm depressed.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FoxInSocks
The article you posted is from a long time ago. Your comment would be accurate if it said "in February, before the COVID-19 outbreak struck in the United States, Fauci said..."

At the time the article was written, there were only a small number of cases in the USA:

"As of February 26, 2020, there had been 14 cases detected in the United States involving travel to China or close contacts with travelers, 3 cases among U.S. citizens repatriated from China, and 42 cases among U.S. passengers repatriated from a cruise ship where the infection had spread."

Dr. Fauci was writing about the situation when there were 17 cases in the entire country, plus the isolated cruise ship passengers.

Also, he was contrasting COVID-19 to SARS and MERS which have dramatically higher fatality rates.

This article is interesting for historical purposes, but not much else.

4 posted on 03/29/2020 7:13:30 PM PDT by freeandfreezing
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FoxInSocks

So far there has been appx 2100 deaths from the corona flu. They didn’t all die in one day. This has been going on for a couple of weeks so the daily death rate would be around 150 people a day. Plus babies are being born every day. So the percentage of deaths are lower than total deaths to the population of America.


5 posted on 03/29/2020 7:14:10 PM PDT by HighSierra5
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FoxInSocks

This question has been debated every day. I thought the same thing but have been convinced that you can’t determine the fatality rate at this time. There are too many cases that are unresolved. Today the confirmed cases is about 140,000 and only about 9,000 have cleared with apx 1200 deaths. That leaves 130,000 of the confirmed cases undetermined - too big a number to draw any conclusions, and anything you did conclude would only be a snapshot in time not predictive of anything.


6 posted on 03/29/2020 7:14:34 PM PDT by monkeyshine (live and let live is dead)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: freebirth

The editorial date must be an error as many of the references in the article are dated in March 2020.


7 posted on 03/29/2020 7:15:10 PM PDT by masadaman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: FoxInSocks

as my lab virologist contact has pointed out from the first week or so of their own data collection. as they ramped up testing (now 100’s per run), they still get about a 10% covid positive rate from *symptomatic* testing.


8 posted on 03/29/2020 7:15:42 PM PDT by dadfly
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FoxInSocks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AFf0ysgNiM


9 posted on 03/29/2020 7:20:09 PM PDT by Cvengr ( Adversity in life & death is inevitable; Stress is optional through faith in Christ.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FoxInSocks

NEJM, dated March 26th.


10 posted on 03/29/2020 7:25:04 PM PDT by FoxInSocks ("Hope is not a course of action." -- M. O'Neal, USMC)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FoxInSocks

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic#Epidemiology

United States

Cases 142,402

Deaths 2,497

Recoveries 4,767


11 posted on 03/29/2020 7:39:35 PM PDT by familyop ("Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FoxInSocks

There’s much pressure on him from political investment interests, and he’s old. This nurse was very ill for 26 days (see do the math).

Colorado nurse contracts coronavirus: ‘A lot of my friends are nurses at the hospital and they’re very worried’
https://www.foxnews.com/media/colorado-nurse-coronavirus-hospital-worried


12 posted on 03/29/2020 7:41:33 PM PDT by familyop ("Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FoxInSocks

Posted again?

“If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases,”

If one assumes
If one assumes
If one assumes

That phrase means it is not based upon data, but is conditional if one assumes certain things which are not known.

This was from over a month ago. He’s now said otherwise.

There’s some difficulty in reading scientific papers, but this is pretty straightforward here. Did people forget how to read?


13 posted on 03/29/2020 7:51:59 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: HighSierra5

So far there has been appx 2100 deaths from the corona flu. They didn’t all die in one day. This has been going on for a couple of weeks so the daily death rate would be around 150 people a day. Plus babies are being born every day. So the percentage of deaths are lower than total deaths to the population of America.


Some people get accused of being hysterical about the deaths. This is the opposite, and not in the reasoned sense.


14 posted on 03/29/2020 7:54:30 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: freeandfreezing

Good Data from South Korea, just use them.


15 posted on 03/29/2020 7:54:46 PM PDT by dila813
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: freebirth

“That editorial was published Feb 28. I do not believe this is his current position, and if it is, he is talking some awfully high numbers of case fatalities.”
*********************************************
He is a data guy who is facing a situation that has been, up to now, severely deficient in HARD DATA. As a result of that DATA DEFICIT, he has been all over the board with his PROJECTIONS. He has has projections of deaths that are very low based upon optimistic ASSUMPTIONS & ESTIMATES. And he has some very depressing PROJECTIONS based upon the most PESSIMISTIC (and UNREALISTIC) ASSUMPTIONS & ESTIMATES.

As more data accumulates, the projections will be more accurate. And with the waves of new and FASTER testing capabilities coming online in vastly greater volumes, HARD DATA WILL RAPIDLY ACCUMULATE. And, in my opinion, the projections will grow both more accurate and LOWER.


16 posted on 03/29/2020 8:35:10 PM PDT by House Atreides (It is not a HOAX but it IS A PRETEXT!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: freebirth

From where do you get a publish date of 2/28?

The article is dated 3/26.


17 posted on 03/29/2020 9:21:21 PM PDT by upchuck (Democrats are always the problem, never the answer.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: upchuck

Right below the last sentence of the article it states it was published on Feb 28th


18 posted on 03/30/2020 4:39:41 AM PDT by brookwood (Obama said you could keep your plan - Sanders says higher taxes will improve the weather)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson