You obviously have no scientific training, because you would realize that when you scale effects to the population, there are only two relevant numbers: In calculus it is written as 1/N dN/dt - the fractional increase in cases day over day, and the other is percent of population infected.
The former is about .13 for the US and about .05 for Italy - in other words the "RATE" [rate scientifically means change of a quantity per unit time] of infection in the US is almost 3 times as high as Italy. The second is the fraction of the population infected which is .16% for Italy and .04% for the US. Now why is this latter relevant - because saturation effects will not happen until a significant fraction of the population is infected. Even if both numbers are off by a factor of 100 it would barely effect the rate of spread of the disease.
That Italy has a higher fraction of population infected is because the epidemic has been going in Italy longer than the US - a fact we all know. With cases increasing in the US as they are, it is only a matter of time before we reach the same level of penetration as Italy.
“You obviously have no scientific training.....”
My friend, I don’t need scientific training to understand that if you scaled everything to the population the chart you posted would convey a totally different picture.
I can understand people like gas_dr and his projections based on logic and common sense, which has served me well over many years.
His model may be off by a few days, but he posted the first time on 3/17, almost two weeks ago, when the number of cases was at 6,000. As I pointed out in my comment #32 in this thread, his model appears to be relatively accurate, but off by a few days. Based on my post (and your subsequent FR post http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3829723/posts) we certainly seem to be moving in the right direction now.
This “feardimic” may be over sooner rather than later.