There are a couple of things going on here. First, the FT data is not a projection or based on a model or an interpretation. It is just a chart of raw numbers and it is historical, e.g. past or present perfect tense.
gas_drs hypothesis is an hypothesis, not a fact. It is projection of what could happen. Further it is based on a speculation and not an explanatory mechanism so it has no more credibility than your opinion or my dog's opinion.
Further what is being loudly debated is the propriety and necessity of public health measures in this instance. Citing what happened in China or SK or some such is not an argument against because those trajectories are all based upon very vigorous and intrusive public health measures.
So I am no better informed by this than I was before.
“There are a couple of things going on here. First, the FT data is not a projection or based on a model or an interpretation. It is just a chart of raw numbers and it is historical, e.g. past or present perfect tense.
gas_drs hypothesis is an hypothesis, not a fact. It is projection of what could happen. Further it is based on a speculation and not an explanatory mechanism so it has no more credibility than your opinion or my dog’s opinion.”
I agree the data at FT, which is excellent, is a statement of facts. It is also misleading. If we are to make well-informed decisions then we should be able to make accurate comparisons. Knowing that Italy, as an example, has 4 times the rate of infection as we do here in this country, to me, is meaningful AND accurate. That meaning is not on display in that graph.
Regarding gas_dr and our dogs, I’m not buying your view. The doc made his assessment based on facts from real countries around the world and then overlayed those facts on our circumstance. While his projection is not fact yet, it is a logical approach to the problem — not dog guesses. There are so-called experts making all kinds of projections. You choose the one you like and I’ll choose the one I like. I just happen to like and believe in the doc’s very logical approach.
By the way, the numbers I posted are also facts, if Worldomenter is factual. It shows the growth factor trending slightly down since 3/22, with the exception of two outlier days. The average growth factor since 3/22 has been 1.13. The average since 3/11 was 1.30 Yesterday was 1.04 which is well below both averages. Those are facts and if the trend continues to decline (big if) so will the total cases. Now, that’s not a dog guess.
IC Clearly