Posted on 03/28/2020 9:45:40 AM PDT by yesthatjallen
For the past two days, New Yorkers have been dying at a rate of one every 17 minutes, according to the latest grim citywide statistics.
On both Thursday and Friday, another 84 people died in the city from the coronavirus, as the number of positive cases and of those who are critically ill also climbed.
The COVID-19 death toll in the city was 450 as of Friday evening, up from 366 reported fatalities in the morning.
Total citywide coronavirus cases rose to 26,697, up 4.4 percent from the 25,573 reported in the morning.
Mayor de Blasio warned Friday that critical resources to combat the outbreak in the country’s epicenter could run out by Sunday, April 5, as hospitals remain completely overwhelmed.
SNIP
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
it IS a 99% fake epidemic
exactly TGKC. I am beyond ready for sanity to return
That is the most retarded post today.
Who asked you? Are you an expert on blood-tainted phlegm?
You have to be kidding me.
They dug up roads.
They arrested people outside.
They locked people in their homes. You could come out once every three days.
They shut down internal traffic. Air traffic, train traffic, and car traffic.
We are shut down like it’s a friggin suggestion—and a weak one at that.
NYC is crawling with AIDS...
and we all know people with compromised immune systems are at a great risk of death. Not only from CV but from ANY virus
You've not defined your statistics. Are you comparing apples and apples?
Pretty much. They keep mentioning these 'alarming' statistics, but are very careful not to mention it in relation to anything else, like, say the death rate per day for the common flu in a city like theirs.
Currently, no State has shown a death rate of over 0.02%, most are less. ...just dividing total deaths by total *known* cases.
Do the math, it is an additional 1/4 the number that dies on average every day. If we weren’t actively looking for this virus, we’d chalk it up to a bad flu year and move on.
Oh, and you’re off by two decimal places.
NY State, from that web site has 1.6% as having died so far - which is to be expected when the disease is in the ramp-up stage of infections. During that period, the low death rate is a function of spread, not of severity of the disease.
South Korea has been lauded for weeks for its comprehensive testing. In the early stages their death/cases rate was very low as well. Then it stabilized at around 0.4% as it turned the corner at the beginning of March.
With relatively few new cases - and are you arguing the South Korea in fact did not detect most of their cases - that death rate has continued to creep up.
Date cases dead rec death/cases
3/22 8897 104 2909 1.12%
3/23 8961 111 3166 1.24%
3/24 9037 120 3507 1.33%
3/25 9137 126 3730 1.38%
3/26 9241 131 4144 1.42%
3/27 9332 139 4528 1.49%
3/28 9478 144 4811 1.52%
the recovered number would not be 4.77 times higher than the deceased number. The deceased numbers would have by now outpaced flu numbers worldwide.
There’s a lot of space between the complete hysterics, and the “just the flu” guys. Both ends of that spectrum contributed to panic: The “End of the world” guys because they were preaching apocolypse; and the “It’s just the flu,” guys because that whole argument became completely untenable and was clearly wrong - leaving a lot of people to panic when their perception veered.
The SARS outbreak also had this dynamic, where the initial pooh-pooing created one impression of fatality rate and then was clearly shown to be a distinct understatement - though all while the transmission rate was unknown.
Of course none of this justifies some of the actual wild over-reactions that have occurred in the media and government.
At least what I have read from the thrust of the arguments of the two you cited, has predominantly been just convincing people it is serious and countering the “It’s just the flu” folks without engaging in the apocolypse talk.
See, this is what I’m talking about. It’s not 4.7% of the entire population, it’s 4.7% of the people they tested who tested positive and are hospitalized.
Roughly 2.8 million people die in the US every year, the population of the US is roughly 330 million, and the population of New York State is roughly 19.5 million.
Using these figures, the normal death rate in NYS is about 165,000 per year, from all causes.
That would be about 452 per day.
So, the virus would calculate out to just over an additional 40% per day for Thursday and Friday, FWIW.
That’s not correct. Washington has a 4.7% death rate. The rest are lower, but they are ramping up while Washington is ramping down.
This is a weird disease in a number of ways. One way is that usually, if you are sick with something and make it to a hospital, and live through the first 48 hours, the further death rate is very, very low. With this disease, the average death is 14 days after symptoms become present.
That’s why for South Korea, the death/cases rate has risen from around 0.4%, to 1.5%, and would meet the death/resolved rate arc at about 2.0-2.3% if nothing changes. Their doctors and their hospitals almost certainly didn’t get dramatically worse with more experience and resources.
That said, I am hopeful about the new drug regimens being trialed. Maybe they’ll be able to knock off that end-of-cycle rise in the death rate.
...looking at the table - you’re correct about Washington, it is 4.7%. That is quite high comparatively to other State’s.
That is the most retarded post today.
Ad-hominem attacks do not increase the quality of our FR community, BTW. If you think a post is retarded, make your case.
The flu killed 30k more now then it did in January when this started happening
The flu strains we have vaccines for now were prominent and widespread in China nearly a year ago.
Dr. Birk just stated yesterday that the projected numbers were way overblown
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