1.2% is terrible compared to just about anything we’re familiar with these days. Here’s what I’m having trouble with, in terms of math though.
If, as we’re told by the so-called experts that the average victim will infect somewhere between 2.5 and 3.5 people, there should be hundreds of thousands, if not millions more cases out there. And if it has a CFR of even 1.2%, there would already have been many more deaths than we’ve seen.
That doesn’t change the fact that this CCP Virus is much more deadly than the seasonal flu; both things can be true at the same time.
Actually, in the USA, we do not know that.
The first case of COVID-19 in the USA was documented on 21 January 2020 (just 10 miles from my apartment - so, I definitely have a betting interest on the outcome).
We need to compare the first nine week “arc” of COVID-19 data to the first nine week arc of seasonal influenza data, which begins around 01 October every year.
That is not really possible, for two important reasons.
(1) Testing for the viruses has not been equivalent, in quantity or in geographic location.
(2) The death toll from seasonal influenza is not determined until many months AFTER the season ends, and it is determined by mathematical models, not by actual hard data. For instance, in the weekly CDC influenza report, flu deaths are combined with 100% of pneumonia deaths.
Bottom Line - the number of deaths from influenza and COVID-19 is almost ALWAYS a judgment call. Did a person die because of COVID-19, or because of pneumonia caused by COVID-19, or because of another underlying disease that was aggravated by COVID-19?
My own guess - anyone who dies with the COVID-19 virus in his blood is being labeled a COVID-19 death, regardless of other health considerations.
I forgot to respond to your comment about infection rate.
Here in Washington state, the secondary infection rate - people with known exposure, travel history, or obvious symptoms - is only 7%.
It has been in that range for almost the last three weeks.
Influenza has a 30%-40% secondary infection rate.
Bottom Line - COVID-19 is NOT more infectious than seasonal influenza.