Posted on 03/26/2020 10:49:10 PM PDT by Its All Over Except ...
Dr. Deborah Birx on Thursday provided encouraging coronavirus numbers suggesting that some of the predictive models were incorrect.
“There’s no model right now, no reality on the ground, where we can see that 60-70 percent of Americans are going to get infected in the next 10-12 weeks,” she said.
Without specifically naming the Imperial College, Brix referred to models that predicted there could be 500,000 coronavirus deaths in the United Kingdom and 2.2 million deaths in the United States.
The scientist of the model revised the estimate of deaths in the United Kingdom to be roughly 20,000 people or fewer.
Birx said that the actual data coming in from other countries were different than some of the direst projections.
She noted that in major countries, there was never an attack rate of over one in over 1,000 people.
“The predictions of the models don’t match the reality on the ground on either China, South Korea, or Italy,” she said.
Birx also addressed reports that raised the alarm of New York City hospitals running out of ICU beds, ventilators, and creating “Do Not Resuscitate” (DNR) policies for patients.
She revealed that she spoke with health officials in New York, that there were still ICU beds and 1000-2000 ventilators available, and that there were no DNR policies enacted.
“We don’t have evidence of that right now,” she said.
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(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
The model can be well correlated with reality based on data from after the event. They can be based on fundamental principles.
However if the values of the parameters are not based on the real/actual parameters of the current pandemic they can be all over the place on prediction.
Not enough testing to be able to nail the parameters of the current pandemic are going to provide inaccurate outputs of the models.
We do not have enough testing data to determine the parameters to put into the models.
GIGO.
We horrendously need to buy some more data.
She hacked off joe lockhart...that’s a start
You left out Climate Change !!
The model was garbage.
When a model misses by a massive 25 times what they predicted only weeks ago, (like the Imperial College model that the crazy media have been using) that model needs to be thrown in the trash heap.
And Population Bomb.
Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
BS.
You can criticize the choice of inputs/parmeters. Criticizing the model itself will have to wait.
Ambassador Colonel (Ret.) Doctor Deborah Birx will get the Medal of Freedom, wearing her Army retiree uniform in the White House after all this is past.
You have no understanding of models and how they work.
There still may be some institutions of higher learning that offer courses in such. Hopefully some virtual courses will be available.
Just try to grasp the results vs. inputs of a model against the accuracy of a general model.
Wish we could get her to post on here.
She’s going to be one of the heroes of this faux crisis. As opposed to Dr. Doom.
No, it depends on the parameters used.
Here in the US we are WAY behind the curve on testing to get a good handle on the real values of the model parameters.
You really have no idea about modeling.
Institutions for plucking totally made up, fake figures out of your butt to push a poetical agenda you mean.
so called computer models are always suspect (witness the tainted code and false assumptions found in many models “predicting” anthropomorphic global warming/cooling/etc.), because the academic men who design and program these models are most often suspect and full of lust for power, gov’t grant money and academic influence.
never trust them over true, experimental science as based scientific method as described by Carl Popper. let them always show us their raw data, and let us replicate it, before we risk our blood and treasure on their word about it.
as the great scientist Dick Feynman said in his wonderful lecture on “What is Science” to science teachers:
“We have many studies in teaching, for example, in which people make observations, make lists, do statistics, and so on, but these do not thereby become established science, established knowledge. They are merely an imitative form of science analogous to the South Sea Islanders’ airfields–radio towers, etc., made out of wood. The islanders expect a great airplane to arrive. They even build wooden airplanes of the same shape as they see in the foreigners’ airfields around them, but strangely enough, their wood planes do not fly. The result of this pseudoscientific imitation is to produce experts, which many of you are. [But] you teachers, who are really teaching children at the bottom of the heap, can maybe doubt the experts. As a matter of fact, I can also define science another way: Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”
What’s a model. A prediction. An estimate. A guess.
Have you ever constructed a mathematical model?
Constructed an Excel-like spreadsheet?
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