Posted on 03/26/2020 10:45:47 AM PDT by AndyJackson
Excerpt. See original for excellent graphs and content.
These are very interesting plots but it seems to me that they should be normalized to the relative populations to be really meaningful.
I’d be curious to see graphs of the 2020 influenza to compare.
Note the vertical scale is not linear.
I really believe those Chinese numbers especially
They sort of come out as log/log graphs. Don’t ask me why. But if you look at # new deaths and go backward ten days, THAT is the pint at which “new cases” entered the exponential phase, as a nation. Last Monday. So just as the epidemic was starting we shut it down with isolation or the PC “social distancing”. Never heard that phrase before.
Exactly, But they don’t want context, it shatters the panic mongering and lying with statistic they have been pushing
This illness probably won’t have much effect on last winter’s flu #. We probably won’t have hardly any flu next winter. Nobody is gonna want to invite this monster back.
What meaning are you failing to get?
Not a fan of most of the models since the data that’s out there now is far from accurate let alone reliable.
They may as well be pumping COVI-19 data in the climate change models to get their results.
Precisely
These are not “models” but plotting the evolution of confirmed cases.
Excellent point. Things look very different on a normalized graph.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
This is a vast site with more information that is thought at first glance.
From the tan section select the link to: In interactive charts we present the data on confirmed cases over time in all countries in the world.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#confirmed-covid-19-cases-by-country
Then scroll down to: Confirmed COVID-19 cases relative to the size of the population
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#confirmed-covid-19-cases-relative-to-the-size-of-the-population
Hover over the Countries to see confirmed cases/million population.
This is the same chart for deaths/million population
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#confirmed-covid-19-deaths-relative-to-the-size-of-the-population
This preceding chart is where the USA really shines.
Looking at deaths/1m population is also possible in this chart where you can open a selection box from the right upper corner. Deselect world & choose the Countries you want. UK, US, Italy, Spain is edifying
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#confirmed-covid-19-deaths-by-country
In our visualizations here you can explore the number of total deaths and daily new deaths for all countries with reported deaths. This is shown in absolute numbers, and adjusted for population size by showing total and new deaths per million people.
“These charts are interactive: the data is shown as the worldwide figures by default but can be explored by country – by clicking on + Add Country within the chart.”
Not meaningful, such a small sample of population was tested and the sample that was tested was extremely biased towards critically ill. US has tested less relative to population size than many others. For that reason the number of cases itself is a poor measure of how widespread the disease is, how rapidly it is transmitted, and the mortality rate. Widespread randomized serological testing could give us a baseline from which to draw informed conclusions, and the tests are now out there that could tell us who has been exposed and recovered and who has been exposed and active (IgG and IgM)
The likelihood of getting an infection in the United States vs, for example, Latvia.
Despite my comment I do agree with you. But over time as the infected populations grow in each country the per million approach will become more and more meaningful.
And note that we are about to pass the Lying (IMHO) Chinese to capture the number one spot. But would you rather be in the U.S. or Italy right now?
Understood but they give a false narrative if folks are looking at fatalities vs confirmed cases.... there is no relationship as stated currently. You need data that’s not being put out. How many test have com back negative. That would provide a slightly better outlook although still full of holes.
You can’t come up with a fatality rate % per x number of people unless you know the total number of affected people which we’ll probably never know.
My guess which is about as good as anyone else’s at this point is when it’s all said and done this won’t be any more lethal than the normal flu.. although probably more contagious
As I understand it, about 90% are negative. About 70% in NYC.
The nation has done 500,000 tests 76,000 positive AND 430,000 negative!!!
Thanks. That number alone puts the lie to the fact that we are close to the end here. If you have symptoms, a prerequisite to have the test, you most likely have some other disease and not COVID-19. Which is why we are still seeing exponential growth of cases.
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