“So you believe the number of new deaths every day is incomplete data?”
The number of deaths, by itself, is obviously “incomplete data”. And the models using a never ending exponential curve are also STUPID.
Our population grows at 2 million a year. It would be 3 million a year without abortion. If a million die from the Kung Flu, then our population growth this year will be cut from 2 million to 1 million. We are not going to be wiped out.
Unless, of course, we insist everyone go out of business, all jobs cease, and life ends because the media says it is inevitable!
None of us can change what is going to happen in the next week short of collectively mounting a revolution. Continue to be smart and you and your family will come through this.
Consider a Venn Diagam with “asymptomatic”, mild, serious, dead, and recovered. While they are represented in one two dimensional image they are spread out over time. As the virus moves through the environment all these groups will fall on parallel curves separated by the average # of days one spends in each phase of the illness. So we know nothing about asymptomatic, a little more about mild, much better for “in hospital” and dead is just about a certainty. So death is the most solid number you have and you do “project” (or “model” is your word) forward in time to anticipate where you will be tomorrow or the next day. Sure an asteroid could destroy the earth and your prediction goes to hell but on the whole it’s “best information”. Projection the slope of our curve to Italy’s it appears by the end o f next week we will have just shy of 5,000 deaths which is what I estimated when Antoninius asked me to estimate days ago.