[Erik Latranyi]

The number of new deaths everyday is not a “model”. It’s a fact.

But using the number of deaths to project forward is "modeling" and nonsense.

[wastoute]

And your preferred method is what?

[wastoute]

You would expect the curves for asymptomatic, mild, seriously ill, and deaths to have some sort of relationship to one another, surely. It would be a strange universe indeed if they all had different slopes.