Posted on 03/21/2020 1:02:06 PM PDT by Bon mots
(Excerpt) Read more at barrons.com ...
Financially, this is perhaps the best thing that could have happened to retail investors like me. It’s like the market wants me to take it’s money.
“We’ll be lucky if the DOW holds at 10,000. Meanwhile in the background, Saudi Arabia has positioned itself in the oil war that we won’t be able to afford energy independence. They are well on the way to bankrupting our domestic producers. Once again, other countries along with us will be shipping all their treasure to the House of Saud.”
Yea, I certainly wouldn’t mind an import duty on oil, maybe $20 or $30. It’s rather transparent what the plan is here. Also, the government needs that money to pay off their depression-rebates (along with paying for our usual deadbeats).
Suddenly P/E becomes relevant, haha. I can't stand it. After the fed went to 0% the other shoe drop for me was the elimination of the reserve requirement. Now 100% cash and debt-free physical assets. Now trying to decide if we're gonna be served inflation, deflation, apocalypse, or any combination thereof. I fully believe places like California are capable of producing mini-Venezuela conditions. I have seen convenience stores in SoCal raided by flash mobs exploiting the misdemeanor rule. There aren't enough police to commit enough brutality (so to speak, haha) to keep things in check.
“Couple of weeks ago my prediction was DOW 12,000 - 15,000. Now I’m thinking if hospitals are overwhelmed.. 10,000.. maybe less.”
Agree, my 10k predication was from an eternity ago, when I was thinking more of the economic hit and maybe a minor effect from people getting sick.
With the extreme measures now required to save even a piece of our healthcare system, my new prediction is 6,000. That may now be when I start to dip my toe into the market - and that’s only if we get serious about knocking out this virus.
A two week shutdown will be max pain.
Beyond that, I don’t see many small businesses with physical space returning.
Amen, leveraged ETFs will leave scars.
Agree. I’m about ready to jump in. ODFL (Old Dominion Freight Lines) and Gilead (drugs). Some others.
The recovery/rebound in about 2 weeks is gonna be epic.
And China is buying?
Must be stopped
Depends on how long this lasts. If we open back up in a week, I think we’ll be down 15% in Q2. And basically add another 5% down for each week through early April, then 7-10% for second half of April and after that. The longer this goes on, the more permanent damage it will do.
“It’s not a loss until you sell.”
Actually it’s a 100% loss if you die first. In Japan, it’s been 30 years since the Nikkei hit its peak near 30,000 (1990). The closest it has come since is 24,000. So, many investors died, waiting for their stocks to recover.
Unlike the naysayers and doomsday prophets, I believe in the American people and have complete confidence that when we come out the other side we will prevail as never before
“Folks, I’ve been an Adviser for 28 yrs, was a rep for WAMU when it failed. I’ve had a clientele as big as 1200 households. DO NOT FALL FOR THIS SCAREMONGERING SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”
I was shorting WAMU (and Countrywide, AIG, and others) when they collapsed (made a nice chunk of change). It was obvious that the house of cards were doomed, just based on the loans they were writing (Option ARMs that could not be paid back without appreciation of the ‘asset’).
What other countries have been doing in response to Coronavirus tells me that THIS IS REAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I posted an article saying just that and it got pulled.
So yeah, I started easing back into the market last week, with Friday being the biggest buys.
If I was only getting my news and information from the Fake Media, I would think that America had become a 3rd world country! God Bless America, Donald Trump, and Free Republic!
They need to close the Market on Monday.
What a douche.
That might be true if people were actually self-isolating.
I’ve made 31% since the 24th. Had I listed to various experts here and certain politicians and their economic advisors, I would have not reversed my positions- I would have held keeping with that “you haven’t lost until you sold” nonsense (it’s called a stop loss-duh...). Well-thankfully I didn’t listen to that foolish talk and recognized it for what it was.
And if so, when do they re-open?
The DEMS and China, Saudi Arabia and Russian are all working hand in hand to bring us down!!
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Calm down...and, please tell me why POTUS would allow them - the “DEMS and China, Saudi and Russia” - to do this to our country and his record breaking, roaring economy and record low unemployment levels.
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