Posted on 03/19/2020 11:38:11 PM PDT by Helicondelta
Five days ago I wrote that New York Will Be The Next Italy, But Doesn’t Have to Be. In it, I forecast that NYC’s hospitals would be at capacity as early as March 30. Unfortunately, I was wrong. New numbers suggest that NYC’s hospitals will reach capacity of approx. 3,000 cases by March 24. (This error was from a lower than anticipated case detection rate.)
While there is now nothing we can do to prevent reaching capacity short of immediately adding beds, we can prevent additional deaths and hospitalizations by fully shutting down NYC except for absolutely essential services, like Italy’s current restrictions.
While testing capacity has increased substantially, it has barely closed ground with forecasted new infections, which have continued to grow exponentially. (We estimate a current detection rate of just 5.6%)
(Excerpt) Read more at medium.com ...
Gay hysteria.
1,000 on the 20th. Almost 2,000 on the 22nd. Doubling in two days. And it will continue to do so until our mitigation efforts kick in around March 30.
If Cuomo had any balls NYC would have been shut down a month ago.
But he didn’t and now the media can blame Trump!
LOL! at idiots.
Those aren't newly acquired cases. Those are newly confirmed cases.
The numbers will spike until a large enough percentage of people have been tested.
So you think the two curves have different slopes?
I see what you are saying. The increase is an increase in tests, not patients. The number I am following is new deaths each day. That is increasing at a solid doubling every 48 hours.
NYC get ready for mandatory stay at home lock downs. While the police are making sure you don’t leave your house or apartment rioters and looters will have a field day.
“The number I am following is new deaths each day. That is increasing at a solid doubling every 48 hours.”
______
Do you mean hospitalizations?
There may be a different response to looting this time.
If you think about it you can divide the infected into a few groups. Asymptomatic, mild, seriously ill, and dead. We will never know the # of asymptomatic. We can be a little more confident in the mild, even more in the seriously ill. But the most solid number we can use is death. The problem is, that’s at the back of the boat, so to speak. If it takes say, 5 days (it may be 7 on average) from virus exposure and onset of symptoms until outcome we have all three groups present simultaneously but their day of exposure are all different. So they will also resolve one way or the other by day ten or fourteen. So the decisions we make based on our best data are a good 7 to 10 days behind where the virus is at. Since the virus was allowed to run wild until last Monday it is going to express it’s “natural Ro” until 10 to 14 days after mitigation efforts.
I have followed this closely for a solid week. Until a few days ago there was just too much noise in the signal. Then the signal emerged, 7, 11, 17, 26, 35. Tomorrow will be 50.
No. Everyday at noon they publish the new numbers for the last 24 hours. Subtract yesterday’s number from today’s. That’s the number of deaths in the US in the last 24 hours. 7, 11, 17, 25, 35.
That will get very bad, but we should know by the middle of next week if the treatments they're testing work. If they work as they did in the limited Italian test, the number of deaths will turn around in a matter of weeks, if not days. If they don't work, our country will continue to circle the drain.
Escape From New York II
Oh, and yesterday’s total number was 150.
Like i said, i don’t think it’s humanly possible to decide who should get drugs, acquire them, and get them to the user for days.
[New York Will Be The Next Italy, But Doesn’t Have to Be]
George says whales are the largest mammals.
But they don’t have to be.
They could get them to the patients tomorrow if they wanted. The only thing holding them up is the testing.
Currently 217 at => https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
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