Posted on 03/18/2020 6:04:50 AM PDT by FtrPilot
...The purpose of this article on COVID-19 is to aggregate existing research, bring together the relevant data and allow readers to make sense of the published data and early research on the coronavirus outbreak.
Most of our work focuses on established problems, for which we can refer to well-established research and data. COVID-19 is different. All data and research on the virus is preliminary; researchers are rapidly learning more about a new and evolving problem. It is certain that the research we present here will be revised in the future. But based on our mission we feel it is our role to present clearly what the current research and data tells us about this emerging problem and especially to provide an understanding of what can and cannot be said based on this available knowledge.
As always in our work, one important strategy of dealing with this problem is to always link to the underlying original research and data so that everyone can understand how this data was produced and how we arrive at the statements we make. But scrutiny of all reported research and data is very much required. We welcome your feedback. In the current situation we read and consider all feedback, but can not promise to reply to all.
(Excerpt) Read more at ourworldindata.org ...
Here's a listing of the major paragraph titles in the article:
Our World in Data relies on data from the World Health Organization
Deaths from COVID-19
The growth rate of COVID-19 deaths
Cases of COVID-19
Growth of cases: How long did it take for the number of confirmed cases to double?
Confirmed COVID-19 cases by country
Trajectories since the 100th confirmed case
Testing for COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic
Strategies to respond to COVID-19
The intention of early containment
‘Flattening the curve’
COVID-19: What are the symptoms?
How does the disease progress?
What do we know about the risk of dying from COVID-19?
The definition of the case fatality rate (CFR)
Measuring and interpreting the case fatality rate
Global case fatality rate of COVID-19
Case fatality rate of COVID-19 by age
Case fatality rate of COVID-19 by preexisting health conditions
Case fatality rate of COVID-19 compared to other diseases
Data and dashboards from other sources
IMHO, the most important paragraphs in the article are:
Case fatality rate of COVID-19 by age
Case fatality rate of COVID-19 by preexisting health conditions
Using the data from these two paragraphs, I have conducted risk analyses for myself and my wife. We are both high risk.
Based on the risk analyses, we are self-isolating.
Comments are always welcome.
Look at the daily new deaths US. So far it’s all noise and no signal.
Yet population genetics is critical in understanding the spread and susceptibility of individuals and regions to this COVID-19 pathogen. The CDC and WHO studiously avoid listing the race of those who have become infected, seriously ill, have died or have recovered. It is politically incorrect but important data to understand this disease and just how to allocate resources and target patients who are likely to become seriously ill. So far it appears that while many are susceptible to infection with COVID-19, Asians, elderly Caucasians, people with diabetes and chronic lung conditions are those who are most likely not to recover from infection but become seriously ill or die. Thus far the Indian sub continent and sub Sahara Africa have been largely spared from serious disease. Probably has more to do with genetics than the heat.
Cov-19 study
Would you prefer a yuge signal?
3 authors. Leftist drivel. Search for my previous posts on PhDs and their beloved “data”.
For high risk patients (or any patient) who died, what medical treatment did they receive...particularly ventilator or no ventilator.
For COVID-19, what is the "kill" mechanism? For example, I have read that COVID-19 can destroy lung cells. I have also read that COVID-19, like the flu, can lead to pneumonia. If it is pneumonia, what are the risks of taking antibiotics and steroids?
Is 100% oxygen a successful medical treatment? Home oxygen generators are relatively inexpensive. Should I buy one?
For decades, every last whatever has had to be measured and analyzed by race. Suddenly, there can be no mention thereof.
A study by some very very very very very very very smart people who have very big degrees I’m sure. And they have lots of real world experience I’m sure.
Uh huh, right. The problem with data is the PhDs who flaunt it make the ignorant assumption that the data is good. Usually, it is not. Data crunchers, scientists, analysts, usually have no street smarts, no understanding of how a paycheck is derived, where money actually comes from, how customer behaviors are studied, normal life stuff. No, instead, they take their data prima facie, and move on...multivariate analysis (as an e.g.), etc. That’s not the real world. Taking into account count the Chinese migrant workers in the northern Italy leather industry would have been a wee bit important. Single payor healthcare system in Italy. Deaths in Italy, avg age 81. I’ll take my 21 yr old budding chemical engineer son’s street smart understanding of the world over 99.9% of PhDs’ anytime. My 18 year old even challenges him in that category. My to also don’t have a hidden agenda.
A freeper posted a chart showing deaths from any cause was nearly 15% for the 80+ cohort. Should it be a surprise they are getting hit hard from the Wu Flu? Not at all.
An excellent repository of research articles, updated daily
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia
Pathogenic viruses are bad actors. The most successful approach to contain viral disease is the development and widespread deployment of effective or even semi effective vaccines. Treating an established viral infection is extremely difficult. Most approved anti viral medications be it HIV, Herpes infections or influenza are successful in the sense that they hold the virus at bay but do not cure it or destroy the virus completely.The treatment for Hepatits C may be an exception. If a virus is to be cleared from a human host that depends on the inherent capability of that individuals immune system that is determined by the genes of of that individual.
That brings us to the COVID-19 coronavirus. This RNA virus seems to enter the respiratory tract by binding to the ACE-2 receptors in the respiratory tissue. It is then that the initial critical and decisive battle takes place. If the individual has the immune capability be it delayed T cell response or humoral antibodies, to confine and kill the virus before it multiplies exponentially and infects almost all the receptor sites on respiratory tissue, that individual may have may have a fever, cold or cough but get well quickly. If that individual does not have the immunity, the virus destroys respiratory tissue, infiltrates are seen on X-ray and the dreaded “ground glass” appearance of lesions is noted on chest CT scans. Those are the people who become seriously ill or die.
Until a vaccine is developed, your idea of isolating yourself and your wife is the best approach. Hopefully both you and your wife are have the genetic capability of mounting a credible and effective immune response. If you are elderly, Asian, diabetic or have chronic pulmonary disease, self isolation is probably the best thing to do. Doubt having oxygen on hand is likely to do you much good if you are truly susceptible and become infected.
Case fatality rate of COVID-19 by age
Case fatality rate of COVID-19 by preexisting health conditions
IMHO, the data presented is sufficient to conduct a self risk analysis. Even though data is missing, particularly medical treatment of those who died, I believe the data is usable. There is no guarantee that I would get a hospital bed were I to get the virus.
Thanks.
Though I appreciate the discussion, I’m not going to comment on the data because it basically establishes that I accept the premise which is that this is somehow organically created etcetera. I have a BS degree in statistics and an engineering degree and essentially a lot of Street smarts as though my sons. Throughout my 40 years since graduating I have blown more holes in data and Analysis and statistics than most phds so I’m not going to waste my time on it. But thank you though. I’m going to continue to fight for this country and alongside President Trump and be a peacemaker as much as I can.
Good to know what the Q contingent is thinking.
Good to know what the Q contingent is thinking.
.......
Glad to know what the ostrich, covered bridge contingent is thinking.
COVID-19 is different
Isn’t every strain of flu.
So that is why the death rate started at about 2% and is now nearly 4% (using Johns Hopkins numbers).
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