Posted on 03/18/2020 1:46:18 AM PDT by Helicondelta
A new Harvard analysis shows that many parts of the United States will have far too few hospital beds if the new coronavirus continues to spread widely and if nothing is done to expand capacity.
In 40 percent of markets around the country, hospitals would not be able to make enough room for all the patients who became ill with Covid-19, even if they could empty their beds of other patients. That statistic assumes that 40 percent of adults become infected with the virus over 12 months, a scenario described as “moderate” by the team behind the calculations.
Yet the Harvard estimates suggest that the coronavirus outbreak could require significantly more resources than that. In hard-hit Italy, hospitals have been rationing care for older patients who are severely ill with the virus.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
This situation reminds me a whole lot of Three Mile Island.
Jimmy Carters two top nuclear experts were in total disagreement about what was going on. One thought the situation was relatively under control, while the other was convinced that the roof of the containment building was about to blow.
They were both working on totally unreliable data due to the IT limitations of the time. Hence it is understandable how two learned men on the subject could come to totally opposite conclusions.
Same thing here. The experts are presently working with FAKE data from China and minimal data from everyplace else.
I suspect as they are able to accrue more reliable data samples the true situation is going to shake out.
I take it nobody at the NYT has seen an Army Combat Support Hospital:
that’s a fact. 90% of this crisis is hype, 10% fact, just like this article
More fanning of the flames of panic - the vicious circles are becoming more vicious and will do far more harm than the virus.
Any conservatives who protest are portrayed as heartless and incompetent at best, and at worst, according to at least one MSNBC "analyst", murderers who should be prosecuted. Not kidding. As many on this forum know, that really happened yesterday.
Their agenda is to bring down the current administration and destroy a capitalist market based economy.
This is not saying that this is not a significant health issue, it is.
But when I see the strident, non-stop, 24x7, panic based broadcasting, and the calls from politicians for everything from $1000 checks for everyone to $1000 a month for everyone, you have to view this crisis and its hyping with a:
Cui Bono?
Who benefits?
Politicians like Nancy Pelosi trying to stick abortion legislation into a stimulus bill.
Politicians like Mitt Romney asking for a government handout.
Politicians like Mitch McConnell who is telling people, our people, to just hold their noses and sign the bill without reading it! Because, as one Senator said, they weren't even getting time to read the bill. When Nancy Pelosi was asked about the need for dialog on the bill, Pelosi said "There is no need for that". This is the same person who illegitimately pushed through Obamacare with that exact same logic. Just sign the damn paper.
In a world where responsible people look at budgets and outlays, we would have sober people doing their jobs. In this world, we have people being whipped into a panicked frenzy, and politicians trying to outdo each other in spending from both parties, spending money we don't have. We are already in the tank for spending a trillion dollars a year more than we have, and they simply want to spend a trillion dollars more. After all, the government has lots of money, and can just print more, right?
As I often state, I don't watch television and haven't for decades, but my wife does, and she has the television on constantly. My employer has been having anyone work from home for the next few weeks who has the capability and job description that will allow them to do so, and I fit that bill. At any random time, I can peek out at the television and see the word "coronavirus" with lots of red in the background, images of people in isolation beds, maps of areas with cases, and serious looking women in tight dresses and men with slicked back hair and pinstriped suits, brows furrowed in concern.
In the 24x7 news cycle where people just immerse themselves in this, it isn't hard to see how there is a concerted effort to make this far worse than it is.
And they are succeeding brilliantly.
No. They are failing brilliantly. Starting CW II in the middle of all this would compound the idiocy.
Considering that 85% of those testing positive have minimal symptoms or none at all, I think there's going to be plenty of beds for those who actually need them......
More fear mongering
Now they are ramping up production of Respirators, if you need one you probably are not going to make it. Hard to get off one once your on it.
If you throw in meteorite strikes on 30% of the hospitals at week 3 then the numbers are MUCH worse!
As far as CW2 I can see that happening, but still a long shot. IMHO it is far more likely to turn into tribal neighborhoods fighting the next warlord in the zip code.
What I am very concerned about is a hot war with the Chi-coms. Economic failure is almost always a enabler to hot war. The current word war between the US and the Chi-coms is heating up and getting very little attention. Chinese “honor” is at stake and they take that very seriously. I am not optimistic that we get through the next 5-7 years without a hot war in Asia. Especially after Trump is gone.
I would specify that I am talking in the short term, and I am not yet factoring in a concept like CWII at this time.
The Left would like to get their pieces in place, and they view something like this as a crisis not to be wasted, in my opinion.
To that end, they are working in direct concert with much of the media, if not with overt collusion, but because both the Democrat party and the Media both have the same goals, and both fall under the aegis of The Left.
Understood and agree.
...and where do the doctors to staff that hospital come from? Reserves. You will have to take doctors out of hospitals to send them to that hospital.
T: former Major in Medical Corps.
“Not percentages of infected really, as it will likely infect a whole lot of us.
It’s the percentage who become ill enough to need hospitalization that matters.”
Read the article. It said it assumes 40% of all adults infected.
“That statistic assumes that 40 percent of adults become infected with the virus over 12 months, a scenario described as “moderate” by the team behind the calculations.”
They call 40% of all adults catching it moderate.
Utter nonsense.
“If only 20% of 330 million get it...”
Only? That’d be unprecedented.
What possible basis can there be for postulating 20% of the population gets it?
If it’s transmitted like flu and in a bad flu year 60 million get the flu 60 million is probably a pretty reasonable number.
“If it’s transmitted like flu and in a bad flu year 60 million get the flu 60 million is probably a pretty reasonable number.”
it is not an influenza virus.
Your entire premise is flawed and based in biological ignorance.
Look at China. A quarter year.
80,000 cases.
Look at S. Korea.
There is zero basis for assuming 60 million.
This is secretly the leftists idea of Utopia..actually 50% would be hellven on Earth.
Are you kidding? Asking The New York Times and Harvard for advice?
That would be like General Eisenhower asking Rommel and Gohring for a battle plan to invade occupied Europe.
LOL You’re funny.
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