Posted on 03/18/2020 1:46:18 AM PDT by Helicondelta
A new Harvard analysis shows that many parts of the United States will have far too few hospital beds if the new coronavirus continues to spread widely and if nothing is done to expand capacity.
In 40 percent of markets around the country, hospitals would not be able to make enough room for all the patients who became ill with Covid-19, even if they could empty their beds of other patients. That statistic assumes that 40 percent of adults become infected with the virus over 12 months, a scenario described as “moderate” by the team behind the calculations.
Yet the Harvard estimates suggest that the coronavirus outbreak could require significantly more resources than that. In hard-hit Italy, hospitals have been rationing care for older patients who are severely ill with the virus.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
In ‘simple-math’, if you live in a urban zone of 300,000 people....there’s probably three-to-five hospitals in that area and maybe 4,000 beds (total).
So imagine having a small group of 3,000 folks a week infected, and 6-percent (that’s the general number for ultra-extreme cases) of them requiring hospitalization, so you need 180 beds. It’s not a problem to fill that order.
Four weeks into this, your weekly count is now up to 10,000 (meaning you need 600 beds).
By the 9nd week of this, you have 40,000 a week on the new infected list, and need 2,400 beds.
You can figure 14 to 20 days for each admitted person for the extra care. So your bed situation won’t be able to handle the infection rate for the serious folks and you will start turning away folks around the 10th week of this (if the infection rate isn’t cornered or lessened). Death rates then increase.
This is utter nonsense.
It’s based on unrealistic percentages of infected.
Last I read 80% of people infected end up with mild symptoms that don’t require any hospital treatment, just go hone and rest. They still have no idea how many have the ChiComVirus and many have already recovered because they were never tested.
according to these people, we need 300,000,000 hospital beds.
How many blue people an hour can your local hospital stand?
Folks will get 5 days and get kicked out. But otherwise reasonable numbers.
Do it again but this time, at 9 weeks 40,000 per week in 300,000 i don’t think is possible. It would add up to more than the population. Somewhere around week 4 things should start to level off a bit as the virus has trouble finding virgin hosts. Then what do the numbers look like?
At the point where you need 180 beds perhaps what you mean is ventilators because a bed to die in ain’t real helpful.
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Not quite. Cocktail napkin numbers? If only 20% of 330 million get it that’s roughly 60 million people. 1 % of that is 60,000. Can this country come up with an additional 30,000 ventilators in the next month? When the entire world will need ventilators? Can we make medical students bag 30,000 people for the next month?
Here in North Georgia WellStar Health System has 11 hospitals with 2,775 licensed beds as of 2017 and, 300+ medical office locations to date. There are many other hospital in the metro Atlanta area stand alone or affiliated with other healthcare consortiums. I’ve been able to get CT scans and MRIs at a moments notice at anytime I show up to one of 21 imaging centers. I am not very worried about the medical care in my neck of the woods.
You may have heard that CPAP machines have been drafted into service in some stressed places.
this is just more panic and crisis.....
we will have to triage if we must.....
My neighbor is 69, was put in the hospital by her son as a precaution, and tested positive for Kung Flu yesterday. But her symptoms were not serious and they sent her home to be isolated there.
Not saying it is necessarily wrong given the rarity of this event-we hope-but hasn’t recent theory and policy been fewer beds, less inpatient more outpatient?
If the headline has the word could in it, it’s bullshit.
You’re right. It’s “simple” math. Bereft of anything but numbers.
Oh I agree that for 90-to-95 percent of people...it’s just a mild to harsh flu situation. Those with asthma, COPD or frail health? Those are the only ones requiring real hospital care. I see it being a harsh reality for those over 70, and a fair number of these folks passing on before the vaccine arrives.
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