The graphs show accumulating cases, so the flattening actually demonstrated absolute reduction in new cases. According to the data, the second infection point which is the beginning of reduction of number of cases happens anywhere from +4 to +7 days after the point we have achieved in the US today (Time constant to first inflection point) which appears to be stable across multiple and diverse populations. Clear as mud? As my economics professor used to say.
Thanks gas_dr for all your help!
I offer a link to the latest by Justin Lessler the epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins. This is from the 13th instant written for the Washington Compost. It is written for laymen so take it for what it is worth. His ideas though are primarily coming from an understanding of the structure of the germ itself. His friends in China ran the sequences on this germ and it is pretty clear what it is. If it is not going to behave like Lessler says, we ought to be able to point to the germ characteristics and say why. I’m all ears if anybody knows.
And thanks again Doc, if one grateful soul is worth anything, I do thank you!