If 7 billion people are all 6 degrees of separation how many would have to be sick for everyone to know someone?
And that is exactly the point.
Many headlines not so many confirmed cases.
My daughter was working at Central DuPage Hospital Sunday and they were told to expect the first case on Monday.
And she is not certain if its for C D H or the larger Northwestern hospital system.
About 100 confirmed cases in Illinois, so far out of 13 Million. Zero fatalities.
Illinois has had 170 traffic fatalities so far in 2020.
In an effort to figure out what the Ro of the virus itself is you have to look at a large number of cases before mitigation efforts begin. The only numbers on that were from China a couple weeks ago and it looked to be about 4 days there. So that is the “number” we are trying to push down. It appears to be working for the most part. But a doubling rate of four days was the highest I have heard of. This guy is assuming 3 days. That’s way too much.