“It is also possible that a significant portion of New England Republicans would rather live under a Democratic government than support a secessionist.”
Then shouldn’t they have put someone else up to run?
I don’t know how nominations for open seats work in New Hampshire. The laws vary from state to state. If 50% of the pubs think the guy is great, and another 30% are willing to vote for him but 20% are Lincoln type republicans rather than Reagan type, then the 20% can decide the election without deciding the nominee.