“I expect Seattle now to look like Wuhan around ~1 Jan, when they were reporting the first clusters of patients with unexplained viral pneumonia.”
This may be the stupidest statement here since back in January when the one guy said there’d be 100 million cases by March 1st.
I’m not so sure; the jury is still out.
China —
Cons: very poor public hygiene. No culture of hand-washing. Public defecation. Open wildlife game markets with butchering in stalls. Lots of air pollution. Lots of male smokers. Government covering up the epidemic and providing bad data or maybe intentional misinformation.
Pros (in a way): draconian measures to quarantine people (unfortunately, after the horse left the barn).
US —
Cons: cannot lock down an entire city, metro area, or state like the Chinese can
Pros: excellent public hygiene, better culture of hygiene, better health care, more open data and sharing of data
Which will win?
The tell will be how it moves through the homeless camps in Seattle. Loony, non-hygienic, mobile people sound like the ideal core of infection.