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[Like this base? Better read that carefully. They can put Nuclear capable ships there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_naval_facility_in_Tartus

Oh I know, Russia’s navy is crap. But are their existing subs dangerous or not? Are they missile capable yet? As are some of their smaller vessels?

Compare it to Turkey’s.]

They can’t use nukes against Turkey. They can threaten to use nukes, but they can’t use nukes. If they did use nukes, the minimum response would be a total trade embargo on Russia. The maximum - in response to a nuclear attack on Turkey proper - would be the nuclear annihilation of Russia. Turkey is a NATO ally. Until it isn’t, that’s the default US response to a nuclear attack on the territory of a NATO member. And a nuclear attack on Turkish positions in Syria - that’s not something that would fill Assad with gratitude.

Any Russian nuclear use that isn’t on Turkish soil would just bring about an entire chain of escalation. Uncle Sam is finally going to build a missile defense shield like Israel’s - something very expensive that covers the entire CONUS, at minimum.

Cant use nukes? Wanna bet? The Turkish navy comes out to play and one of the Russian subs uses a nuclear torpedo. IN A NANO SECOND.

The Russians are crazy enough to do it.

A war between Russia and Turkey-IF Turkey starts it, will result in NATO backing off. That is IF Turkey starts it.

Russia WILL NOT, allow its black sea fleet to be blocked off from access to the Med. Forget it..it aint gonna happen.

Turkey simply wants to escalate a war to try and drag NATO into it.

Then comes the issue of the Kurds. One group of Kurds are communists. PKK? Cant remember now. Anyway, the Turks will find themselves fighting the Armenians, Georgians, Russians, Kurds and anyone else around their who has an axe to grind with the Turks.

Israel will become real nervous. There is where we will come into play. If the Muzzies strike Israel, all bets are off in that theater of ops. And them SOB’s are crazy enough to do THAT. The Turks get into it with the Russians, Iran takes a swipe at Israel..and WW3 starts..maybe.

[Like this base? Better read that carefully. They can put Nuclear capable ships there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_naval_facility_in_Tartus

Oh I know, Russia’s navy is crap. But are their existing subs dangerous or not? Are they missile capable yet? As are some of their smaller vessels?

Compare it to Turkey’s.]

Ultimately, I expect that’s what the Article 4 meeting was all about - a request for reassurance that the American nuclear umbrella remains operative against Russian nuclear attack. The problem for Putin is that he lacks a good land route. Things would have been a lot easier if Georgia were part of Russia. He could then ship stuff through Iran and Iraq. But even there, the rivalry between Iran and Russia for influence in Syria makes that route an open question.

And then there’s the question of how much money he wants to spend on bases in Syria that are strong enough to ward off Turkey. He’s got issues keeping up with the Chinese build-up in the Russian Far East. The Chinese are closing in on $300b per year in military spending, vs Russia’s $60b.

Resource prioritization-wise, I’d think keeping the Russian Far East safe is far more important than puttering around the Mediterranean. It’s only a matter of time before the Chinese move on Mongolia, which would remove a key buffer state slowing down any Chinese move north on Russia east of the Urals.