Posted on 03/01/2020 6:05:26 PM PST by cba123
According to the latest data published by the Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) on Monday, the number of coronavirus cases in the country has risen to 4212, with 476 more cases confirmed.
(Please see link for full story)
(Excerpt) Read more at fxstreet.com ...
That makes their death rate around 0.5%. However, the coronavirus death rate is likely even lower, if — as most experts suspect — there are many mild or symptom-free cases that have not been detected.
The true death rate (not counting sympton-free cases) turns out to be similar to that of a severe seasonal flu, below 1 percent.
Just curious, are these deaths actually caused by Crona-virus or an opportunistic infection such as pneumonia.
“The true death rate (not counting sympton-free cases) turns out to be similar to that of a severe seasonal flu, below 1 percent.”
yeah, that’s what Antony Fauci, head of NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases suspects:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/health/coronavirus-flu.html
“Early estimates of the coronavirus death rate from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the outbreak, have been around 2 percent. But a new report on 1,099 cases from many parts of China, published on Friday in The New England Journal of Medicine, finds a lower rate: 1.4 percent.
The coronavirus death rate may be even lower, if — as most experts suspect — there are many mild or symptom-free cases that have not been detected.
The true death rate could turn out to be similar to that of a severe seasonal flu, below 1 percent, according to an editorial published in the journal by Dr. Anthony S. Fauci and Dr. H. Clifford Lane, of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.”
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“Just curious, are these deaths actually caused by Crona-virus or an opportunistic infection such as pneumonia.”
like severe influenza, severe coronavirus can devolve into viral pneumonia, which is the main killer in both cases, though the virus infecting the lungs is respectively influenza and coronavirus. Opportunistic infections, both from bacteria and other viruses can also happen ...
So what is happening in North Korea? What are the chances it breaks out there?
So all these countries doing all they possibly can to stop the spread of the virus...more so than any other time since TB epidemics...is all for something no worse than the flu?
Mass quarantine. Blockading cities. Shutting down schools of entire countries. Shutting down factories. Banning travel from affected areas. All because of the flu.
One would think they would be this worried every flu season.
So all these countries doing all they possibly can to stop the spread of the virus...more so than any other time since TB epidemics...is all for something no worse than the flu?
Yep. Crazy, isn’t it?
Yeah, all those doctors. All those health experts. All those spies. All those government officials. All hoodwinked by the American press. Amazing.
So what is happening in North Korea?
My granddaughter was planning to go to Japan and Korea next month. The airlines have canceled both tickets.
That makes their death rate around 0.5%.
As example, using that method:
If you were to replace “Coronavirus” with “Ricin”, and inject 100 people with a dose which would kill 100% in a week, then every day double the number of people you give the injection, after one week you would have a fatality/injection ratio of 0.8% (100/12,700), for a stipulated 100% fatal dose of the toxin. Do you understand now why there’s this disconnect between the “2%” people, and everyone else (hysterics and not)?
First people get sick. If you divide the number dead by the number known to be infected, that is a very low and essentially meaningless number.
Next people begin to die. If you compare the number dead to the number resolved, you get a very high number.
Next people begin to recover, and the dead/resolved number begins to steadily drop. At this point, you begin to approach the final mortality rate. Before you have long-term “final” data, you can do cohort studies amongst samples which can help you estimate what the final mortality rate will be.
Dividing dead-so-far by sick-so-far gives you a number which tells you almost nothing. It’s the one the media and one leg of the gossips have been passing around as the mortality rate, wrongly.
Severe seasonal flu is below 0.3%, not merely 1%. Some years the death rate for flu is below 0.05%. According to the CDC, this years flu is expected to have a mortality rate of about 0.095%, with about 21 million expected to catch it.
Most viruses themselves don’t really kill you directly. They cause complications and secondary infections that can then kill you. That is especially true with influenza and the coronaviruses.
In certain people, the virus can weaken the immune system to a point a secondary infection can gain a foothold and then spread. Pneumonia and sinusitis is a very common secondary infection that can form from Influenza especially in children and the elderly. The virus can also in some situations cause meningitis or myocarditis, both are very serious conditions.
” Mass quarantine. Blockading cities. Shutting down schools of entire countries. Shutting down factories. Banning travel from affected areas. All because of the flu...One would think they would be this worried every flu season.”
Well, maybe they forgot to do that in prior years? Anyway, like you, I watch what government DO, not what they say...nor what anyone says. For something like this, actions speak much louder than words.
I think we will all be fine. I got quite worked up about SARS devola what have you. All of these things I’ve ever really materialized. I just can’t quite get it started. For norovirus I told my soreallyn. Wash your hands I don’t touch your face. If you do wash your hands immediately. But the most important thing my lovely son, is do not drink Corona beer LOL you said your funny mom
I think we will all be fine. I got quite worked up about SARS devola what have you. All of these things I’ve ever really materialized. I just can’t quite get it started. For norovirus I told my soreallyn. Wash your hands I don’t touch your face. If you do wash your hands immediately. But the most important thing my lovely son, is do not drink Corona beer LOL you said your funny mom
I for one think that “Government” is much more Dangerous than this Virus and at my age that is saying something
Well, all I know is I just got a haircut.
The barber, told me quite proudly, that Vietnam does not have any Coronavirus infections now.
It was sort of embarrassing. :)
A lower death rate leads to more overall deaths because more people walk around semi functional spreading it to others. That’s the mortality paradox with viruses. The 1918 flu had a 0.2% death rate and it killed 80 million. SARS had a 10% mortality and only killed 700 due to it making people very sick very fast.
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