[trebb]

I’ve seen some “outside China” rates estimates of 0.7%...combination of demographics, available care, and age/health of those infected will be deciding factors.

So far, the facts we have 9as we know them) and the “Panic....NOW!” stories aren’t connecting.

[Svartalfiar]

I’ve seen some “outside China” rates estimates of 0.7%...combination of demographics, available care, and age/health of those infected will be deciding factors.

So far, the facts we have 9as we know them) and the “Panic....NOW!” stories aren’t connecting.

The current John Hopkins numbers have 3,044 deaths and 45,074 recoveries. This gives us a total CFR of 6.3%.

If we look at the non-Chinese numbers, we should get a (somewhat) more accurate picture since the Chinese numbers are completely bogus. That currently has 132 deaths, with 617 recoveries. So our current, non-Chinese fatality rate is at 17.6%.

Your .7% is WAY off, as even if we use incorrect math and take deaths / cases, we have 132/9046 giving us an incorrect death rate of 1.46%. Double what yours is, so where is that number coming from?
So right now we have a range of 1.4-17.6% for the fatality rate, and that's crazy high for a virus that's as infectious as this one appears to be. Not to mention reports coming out of people getting re-infected, or the major study that said total time from symptoms to resolution was 28 days, so the total case time is 5-6 weeks, not less-than 14 days like all the quarantines are set up to be.

Hopefully we get lucky and it magically doesn't spread much, but I don't think that's gonna happen. We do have better air, health habits, medical facilities, etc. here, so we'll definitely have a lower CFR than China (their real one, not the official numbers they put out), but I still see us hitting around 5-10%, once this is all over.