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To: NoLibZone
"The coronavirus death rate may be even lower, if — as most experts suspect — there are many mild or symptom-free cases that have not been detected."

This is a factor that most aren't taking into account.

Not everyone in the world that has Covid-19 has been to a hospital or clinic to be counted.

Since only a few hundred have been tested in our country, coupled with a shortage of test kits...that aren't that accurate to begin with and the very narrow testing guidelines the CDC had until just a few days ago, it wouldn't be surprising if there were already 5,000 to 10,000 asymptomatic or low symptom infections here in the U.S.

Even going with just 1,000...that would be a mortality rate just like the "seasonal" flu.

Covid-19 is being hyped, primarily, by those in the media that want to end Trumps re-election bid.

A stock market meltdown with an economic downturn could do just that. Not with his conservative base...but with those (D)'s and "independents" that voted for him in 2016, whom he must get again to be re-elected.

The last major economic downturn, in 2008, produced a usurper in the White House. A junior senator from IL with a questionable/unknown background named Barak Hussein Obama. A guy named Hussein, a few years removed from 9/11.

Panicked, hysterical people do stupid things.

54 posted on 02/29/2020 9:20:26 PM PST by rxsid (HOW CAN A NATURAL BORN CITIZEN'S STATUS BE "GOVERNED" BY GREAT BRITAIN? - Leo Donofrio (2009))
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To: rxsid
"The coronavirus death rate may be even lower, if — as most experts suspect — there are many mild or symptom-free cases that have not been detected."

This is a factor that most aren't taking into account.Estimating fatality rates in the middle of an outbreak is very difficult, as infection confirmation is usually not available right away, recoveries lag deaths, we don’t know the actual full time of infection to resolution, and idiots like the WHO count all current infections as recoveries for their calculations.

Additionally, in this case it is even more difficult for two major reasons: people appear to be infectious even with no symptoms presented so it’s even m,ore difficult to get your true case number; and China can be trusted as far as I can throw my truck. So their numbers can’t really be used, and the non-Chinese numbers are so small as to be statistically essentially irrelevant.

.

People who are immune/resistant generally aren’t included in the numbers, as they never get sick enough to even go to the doctor. CFR is actually lower.

Likewise, people with mild symptoms might not see the doc, or are misdiagnosed with something minor and recover on their own. CFR is actually lower.

People die from other things during the course of infection, even though the virus would have killed them. CFR is slightly higher.

Chinese reporting is completely fake numbers, and given the random reports of everything (tons of dead, massive quarantines, industrial cities shut down for Lunar New Year, large quantities of incinerations, etc) they likely have much more dead than they admit to. Hell, I doubt they even know what the real numbers are. CFR is much higher than reported.

Chinese (actual) cases are inflated due to smoking rates, poor medical facilities, and massive pollution. While CFR is higher than China reports, the worldwide rate should be lower than the hidden real Chinese one. CFR is ±.

Misdiagnoses because of lack of proper facilities. Affects CFR both ways, but likely mostly for recoveries. Probably lower than the official number.

As I mentioned above, recoveries lag deaths. So over the course of the disease, your fatality rate will increase, level off, then come down as the death number goes up sooner than the recovery number. So during the outbreak, the CFR will almost always calculate to higher than it actually is.

Also, our numbers are extremely small. Singapore has ~100 infections. So each death/recovery affects the rate by ±1%. If they happen to get lucky and infect a bunch of resistant people, or unlucky and it’s a bunch of likely-to-die folks, that happenchance will greatly affect their rate. BUT, if we look at South Korea, they have ~3000 cases. Each case moves the rate by .03%. So they need 30 people to be the odd super-susceptible or super-resistant to have the same effect (±1%) on the rate as a single person in Singapore. And when we’re looking at millions of people in a country, or billions worldwide, those tiny samples have margins of error that are probably .01-99%. As macabre as it sounds, we NEED a LOT more cases to get a decently accurate number.
69 posted on 03/01/2020 9:31:26 PM PST by Svartalfiar
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