Dangerous game.
14 states hold their primaries on Tues 3/3.
Bernie will be viable (over 15%) in each and win delegates in each.
Other candidates with a chance for viability in each state:
CA: Bloom, Warren
UTAH: Bloom, Biden, Butt
COL: Bloom, Biden, Warren, Butt
TX: Bloom, Biden, Warren
OKLA: Bloom, Biden, Butt
ARK: Bloom, Biden, Butt
ALABAMA: Bloom, Biden
TENN: Bloom, Biden
NC: Bloom, Biden, Warren
VA: Bloom, Biden
MINN: AmyK, Warren
MASS: Bloom, Biden, Warren, Butt
VT: Butt
MAINE: Bloom, Biden, Warren, Butt
Conclusions?
1. A good chunk of the non-Bernie vote will be cast for candidates who finish in the 10% - 12% range. And receive 0 delegates.
2. Bernie will win 7 to 10 states.
Changes:
Warren, Butt dropped from VA
Butt replaces Warren in UT
Biden, Butt dropped from CA