Posted on 02/28/2020 9:20:28 PM PST by NoLibZone
CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — While admitting we need more information about the COVID-19 coronavirus from China that's spreading worldwide, a local emergency-room doctor believes it eventually will be determined that it is 10 times less deadly than this year's flu strains.
"The influenza virus is actually about 10 times more serious than the coronavirus that we have around here," said Physicians Premier Chief Medical Officer Dr. Lonnie Schwirtlich.
That's right. The Coastal Bend has seen coronaviruses before. Questions remain, however, over how severe this new COVID-19 strain is.
That could change soon.
"What the coronavirus that's coming out of China is and what's its capabilities, we're not quite sure," said Dr. Schwirtlich. "But we're going to find out more now that there's a lot of it in (South Korea), because there we have more ability to find out the information that China is reluctant to let us know about."
His relatively low concern level about COVID-19 coronavirus does not ease the minds of some people who are visiting Corpus Christi.
"I'm concerned because I have -- my immune system is not good for me; myself," said Floren Lopez, who is visiting from San Francisco. "So it concerns me that I'm susceptible."
"I'm very concerned about it, and I don't really know what to do about it yet," said John Larsen, who's visiting from Kansas City. "I'm hoping we get some direction on what we can do, individually, to kind-of protect ourselves if it starts flaring out of control here or in our community."
Other visitors think they know what to do to prevent catching COVID-19 coronavirus, and they're not as concerned.
"If you don't want to have coronavirus is like saying you don't want to have the flu," said Genevieve Aspillaga, who was visiting the seawall from Toronto. "So just keep yourself clean and healthy."
Dr. Schwirtlich agrees with her.
"It's just like any infection out there," he said. "You need to try and avoid it if you can. You do that by avoiding people who are sick and washing your hands frequently."
Oops.
Flu is endemic, Wuhan virus is not. Yet. let’s keep it that way.
Flu is a bad comparison. This is more like the cold virus. On super steroids. Spider Monkeys and Gorillas are both primates. Which would you rather be locked in a room with?
Doing nothing about this is stupid. What ever comes of this is in addition to the flu because, as stated, this is not the flu. It has a CFR of about 2% when you have all the resources of a province or state or country available to focus on it. If the medical system in any area is overwhelmed the CFR rockets to 15%. So if it becomes endemic, like the flu, and our medical system has adapted sufficiently, we will have a lot more deaths than from flu. Downplaying other people’s concerns is a disservice.
“It won’t take much at all to completely overwhelm the system.”
Exactly right.
Miri
25% versus 18%.
In the US it varies wildly by region, also. I imagine, but can’t confirm, that that is true of China also.
“This virus kills between 2 to 3 percent of those who get it in China. I suspect it may be lower in first world countries. Not enough data yet.”
When you exclude Hubei Province (Wuhan) the global CFR is around 1.8%. That’s official deaths divided by (official deaths + official recoveries).
Watch S. Korea. First World medicine, widespread testing. 16 deaths, 27 recovered, 3150 known cases. CFR of 16/(16+27)*100%=37%. That looks pretty bad, BUT it is still early. Many of the 3103 unresolved cases will recover and that 37% will drop to some much lower number. In the US we just had our first official death. There are 7 recovered. That’s a 12.5% CFR. Same caveats as for S. Korea, with the exception that we are just starting our widespread testing so our actual case count is unknown.
Some people here at FR may be panicking, true, but I don’t think that any of them are deliberately creating panic.
I think we have more people deliberately creating complacency in spite of obvious dangers. They are more dangerous, IMO.
Lots and lots of Confirmation Bias, too.
That said, we have our fair share of trolls and abusers.
Some of the local hospitals have been overwhelmed in past years during the flu season with patients being placed in the hallways.
It wouldn't take many more patients to overwhelm all the current hospitals as they exist now in our country. - Tom
My son had a recent hospital stay. The only bed left was the last one in the ICU. The hospital was outsourcing patients to a hospital across the state (small state, but, still...)
Of course, this IS a liberal area full of old rich white liberals. Hospital is probably always full.
Those are flu stats for the US, I believe, but the point is valid.
I'll bet some of those rich white liberals are from here in Massachusetts.
They got this State screwed up, and they migrate north to NH and ME. -Tom
Yes, they are.
Liberals foul the nest and then move on, leaving disaster behind them. NH has been ruined by them fleeing the disaster they created in MA. AZ is going that way. FL too.
Just giving some perspective...
How is Flu endemic? You saying it’s a local thing and not a pandemic virus?
I suppose the coronavirus may end up being more epidemic than the Flu, but even that is really up in the air for now
ADJECTIVE
(of a disease or condition) regularly found among particular people or in a certain area. "complacency is endemic in industry today"
The flu is endemic in the whole world. CV is not, yet.
The qualifications: “regularly found among particular people or in a certain area.”
Seem to say that it means a more limited set of instances - vs. pandemic which is what your apparent meaning of “endemic in the whole world” would denote.
I originally responded to was saying Flu is “endemic”, seeming to mean it wasn’t a global phenomenon...
Perhaps just a miscommunication - lot of that going on with the Great Dem Hope (my new name for the coronavirus)...
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