You’re right; I’m revising my number in post #25 to 7.8%.
I know the numbers may be way off, but that’s the best we have to work with today.
Key remaining concerns: China has sociopolitical reason to downplay fatality counts, and I don’t see containment working (asymptomatic & contagious for days, with no meaningful amount of testing underway). Korea is the case to watch: significant infection count, rising fast, first-world country with concentrated population, best medical response system you could reasonably hope for.
Completely agree re: SK.
If this were attacking the 20-40yr old demographic and killing them preferentially, like Spanish Flu did, I’d expect this to be the very last thing China would admit. From a simple military preparedness standpoint.
The highest rate using solid data in industrial society is 1%, but if you look below it is less than 1% (.4% & .5% respectively). Remdesivir has shown promise against other coronaviruses and may be beneficial in this current outbreak. Gilead’s drug is now being tested in China and the U.S. Also, convalescent plasma, a blood product taken from people who have already fallen ill, may have great potential.
Treatment is getting a lot better and they might have cure (increase in chance of survival) in a few weeks. The mortality rate will fall quickly. Next, viruses hate the heat and dry weather. The warmer weather might kill it off.
South Korea, 10 deaths out of 977. (.01)
Cruise ship 3 out of 691. (.004)
Japan 1 out 170. (.005)
Bad news from Korea: the head of emergency operations overseeing Covid19 outbreak just killed himself.
https://news.naver.com/main/read.nhn?mode=LSD&mid=sec&oid=011&aid=0003699878&sid1=001