Posted on 02/27/2020 5:00:19 AM PST by Redmen4ever
Trump edges Biden, other Dems, except Sanders, in Pennsylvania. Assuming, that is, that Muhlenberg College isn't a tool of Putin.
(Excerpt) Read more at assets.documentcloud.org ...
Oy. Check out the methodology. This one really is a crock poll. Why did they even bother??
The poll is skewed to Dems. 47% Dem, 40% Rep, and only 11% Ind. Not reflective of the electorate.
Trump isn’t losing PA. And Bernie has zero chance of ever winning PA.
Q1: Thank you. Which of the following categories best describes your current voting status? Are you registered as a ______? (READ LIST)
1. Democrat..................................................................... 47%
2. Republican....................................................................40%
3. Independent.................................................................. 11%
4. Other Party................................................................... 3%
5. Not Registered to Vote in Pennsylvania (END SURVEY)
Looks like an oversampling of Democrats and Republicans, Democrats more than Republicans, and an under sampling of Independents. Also the low sample number and it is only registered voters make this poll a piece of schiff. Leave it to liberal academic types to put the best spin on failing Rat numbers. Being on the ground in PA leads me to believe that Trump will carry the state without problems and he will get more African-American votes than anyone expected.
I live in SW Pennsylvania and I see Trump signs,flags,and homemade signs everywhere.
Approximate registration in PA as of November 2019 from the PA department of state:
D 47%
R 37%
I 14%
We drove through quite a bit of central PA recently. Not only was there quite a bit of Trump stuff (flags, signs, banners, bumper stickers), I did not see anything for a ‘Rat candidate. Not one thing. During the entire trip.
The sampling numbers look right to me. They correspond to the 2019 state voter statistics.
Given the 5.5% margin of error the poll is pretty worthless.
The longer these polling organization make the Dems think they are winning, the worse will be their reaction in November.
I didn't realize independents were so small in PA. I was thinking it was more like mid-20's, which is still below the national average. But PA is a closed primary state, so the number could be lower than mid-20's due to that. As for the margin of error, it is statistically correct for the sample size. However, I have no idea what the distribution of survey calls was. There could be over representation of Philadelphia, Allegheny, Lackawana and Erie counties, easily with the low sample size. There's 67 counties in PA, mostly rural and some that vote 70+% republican. It's hard to get a good representation of those counties with only 400 or so data points.
Registered versus likely voters is another variable.
In SE PA, I also see lots of Trump stuff, but only one Warren bumper sticker, and a handful for Bernie.
This will change when the nominee is known. The dems seem to be about 4 times as likely to sport bumper stickers in this area, probably because they know conservatives don’t key cars.
Smith’s Analytical Poll shows that Trump will win by 30 points.
Ballinger’s Surefire Poll of desirable voters, or otherwise known as the BS Poll indicate that Trump will win by 30 points. This poll is always accurate, and always predictable...
MULE-EN-Burg sounds like a Democrat stronghold.
Being closed means most people pick a major party because of primary voting. AFA where the calls were taken, I guess you feel big city Republicans might be more liberal than rural ones. That may be true but don’t discount the idiocy of women voters. A lot of them want to blame industry for all their illnesses. I had one tell me that she knew very few people with cancer years ago but a lot of people now. She wanted to blame fracking (Trump openly backed fracking in PA) rather than being fat and old (yes she’s an R).
That’s why I love that Trump changes the rules with his rallies.
He doesn’t just divide the pie into different proportions, but makes the pie bigger with all the unregistered voters he is activating.
I don't even open them any longer, toss into the burn pit pile of junk...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.