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Poll finds three-way Democratic contest in Florida with Mike Bloomberg the slight leader
Florida Politics ^ | February 24, 2020 | Peter Schorsch

Posted on 02/25/2020 6:41:11 PM PST by Zhang Fei

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As I've mentioned elsewhere, people who purchase consumer products are influenced by the last voice they hear on a given product. In politics, the product is the candidate. Ads and get-out-the-vote organizations that contact people who might be simpatico re the candidate are ways candidates can nullify negative free media, either in the form of critical journalists or poor debate performances. And that is just what Bloomberg has attempted. He has drowned out negative media impressions with his ads, local pol endorsements and campaign worker contacts. Not everyone can do it because it's prohibitively expensive. But a candidate able to spend billions can, and is getting it done:

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample
Sanders
Biden
Bloomberg
Warren
Buttigieg
Klobuchar
Steyer
Gabbard
Spread
RCP Average 2/14 - 2/24 -- 28.8 17.4 14.8 13.0 10.2 5.6 2.4 1.8 Sanders +11.4
The Hill/HarrisX 2/23 - 2/24 470 RV 28 17 19 8 12 3 3 2 Sanders +9
CBS News/YouGov 2/20 - 2/22 6498 LV 28 17 13 19 10 5 2 1 Sanders +9
Emerson 2/16 - 2/18 573 LV 29 22 14 12 8 6 3 4 Sanders +7
ABC News/Wash Post 2/14 - 2/17 408 RV 32 16 14 12 8 7 2 1 Sanders +16
Economist/YouGov 2/16 - 2/18 555 LV 24 18 12 16 11 7 2 2 Sanders +6
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 2/14 - 2/17 426 LV 27 15 14 14 13 7 2 1 Sanders +12
SurveyUSA 2/13 - 2/17 1022 LV 29 18 18 10 12 4 2 -- Sanders +11
NPR/PBS/Marist 2/13 - 2/16 527 RV 31 15 19 12 8 9 2 0 Sanders +12
The Hill/HarrisX 2/14 - 2/15 449 RV 22 19 18 12 10 5 3 0 Sanders +3
Morning Consult 2/12 - 2/17 15974 RV 28 19 20 10 12 6 3 2 Sanders +8

1 posted on 02/25/2020 6:41:11 PM PST by Zhang Fei
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To: Zhang Fei

All themoneyin the world can’t buy a personality. Bloomberg stunk up the stage again tonight. Even with his hired audience


2 posted on 02/25/2020 6:48:36 PM PST by McGavin999 (Queen Fancy Nancy Of North Poopistan)
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To: Zhang Fei

Biden is probably backed mostly by people who will vote for a shoehorn if it has the word Democrat stuck to it.

Such voters don’t even bother to really learn what their candidate is saying on issues. They vote straight ticket, no matter what. I have lots of folks in my family like that, still willfully under hypnosis and self delusion.
Ignorant bliss.

Some of this group won’t awaken till their party is fully infiltrated and commandeered by the socialists.


3 posted on 02/25/2020 6:49:44 PM PST by lee martell
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To: Zhang Fei

The poll has a margin of error of 5.4%.

Wow.


4 posted on 02/25/2020 6:51:46 PM PST by Flick Lives (MSM, the Enemy of the People since 1898)
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To: Zhang Fei

We need to push Bernie over the top and down their throats.


5 posted on 02/25/2020 6:52:16 PM PST by Lurkinanloomin (Natural Born Citizens Are Born Here of Citizen Parents_Know Islam, No Peace-No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: Lurkinanloomin

If half of Republicans in open primary states would vote for Sanders in the primary it could happen. And that would be the end of the demwit communist party.


6 posted on 02/25/2020 7:00:07 PM PST by TonyM (Score Event)
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To: TonyM

I want Mikey Mouse knocked but l don’t think it is going to happen.


7 posted on 02/25/2020 7:08:17 PM PST by gibsonguy
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To: Zhang Fei

Many Floridians are from New York or other parts of the northeast, but I’d be surprised to see Bloomberg get more votes than Sanders.


8 posted on 02/25/2020 7:23:14 PM PST by familyop ("Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy")
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To: Lurkinanloomin

I think Gillum will endorse Bernie and that should put him on top.


9 posted on 02/25/2020 7:26:29 PM PST by rrrod (6)
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To: Zhang Fei

This is where cross over votes from Republicans for Bernie would make sense.


10 posted on 02/25/2020 7:27:48 PM PST by ConservativeMind (Trump: Befuddling Democrats, Republicans, and the Media for the benefit of the US and all mankind.)
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To: TonyM

I’m trying to recruit as many as possible to do that.
Make them openly wear the socialism they’ve been cloaking all these years.


11 posted on 02/25/2020 7:49:31 PM PST by Lurkinanloomin (Natural Born Citizens Are Born Here of Citizen Parents_Know Islam, No Peace-No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: Zhang Fei

Only ¡YEB! can save us from Hillary Clinton. Donald Trump will never be the Republican nominee.

Polls never lie.

And those polls were every bit as accurate as this one.


12 posted on 02/25/2020 8:14:52 PM PST by MrEdd (Caveat Emptor)
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To: Zhang Fei

A Jewish guy leading in Flordia, who would have thunk!


13 posted on 02/25/2020 9:18:31 PM PST by Herakles (Diversity is applied Marxism!)
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To: Zhang Fei

What a beautiful brokered convention we will see where Super Delegates decide the Democratic Primary and determine the Party Candidate. The bloodbath will be a site to behold.

May the Democrats destroy their own party for decades to come.


14 posted on 02/25/2020 11:32:23 PM PST by Robert357
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To: Robert357

[What a beautiful brokered convention we will see where Super Delegates decide the Democratic Primary and determine the Party Candidate. The bloodbath will be a site to behold.

May the Democrats destroy their own party for decades to come.]


From your lips to Jupiter’s ears.


15 posted on 02/26/2020 12:08:25 AM PST by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Zhang Fei

Bloomberg has shown in both debates he’s not into these slap stick performances and prefers staying on issues and reasonable debate that he knows the bimbo’s standing with him lack.....He appeals to the level headed voters who want to see and hear the actual positions of the candidates rather than the cat-fights.


16 posted on 02/26/2020 12:24:59 AM PST by caww
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To: caww

[Bloomberg has shown in both debates he’s not into these slap stick performances and prefers staying on issues and reasonable debate that he knows the bimbo’s standing with him lack.....He appeals to the level headed voters who want to see and hear the actual positions of the candidates rather than the cat-fights.]


He can’t afford to offend any of the other players. His path to the nomination involves coming in at #2 or #3, getting past the first ballot and then buying everyone else’s delegates out. So his strategy is to be as inoffensive as possible to his rivals, with a single exception. That exception is Sanders, whom he can and must burn to the ground, in order to hold Sanders’s delegate count down, and make his own path to a majority easier.

The best shot for Bloomberg’s path to the nomination consists of him getting the #2 spot, delegate-wise, after Sanders, buying off all the Dem also-rans, and prevailing on the second ballot. If he doesn’t get the #2 slot, things become a lot harder, because whomever is #2 is going to think of himself not merely as a kingmaker but a potential nominee, and therefore less likely to give up his delegates to Bloomberg.


https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2020
[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be selected by delegates to the Democratic National Convention, which will be held July 13-16, 2020, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The national nominating convention is the formal ceremony during which the party officially selects its nominee. The delegates are individuals chosen to represent their state, territory, or Democrats Abroad at the convention.

In 2020, there will be 4,750 delegates: 3,979 pledged delegates and 771 automatic delegates—more commonly known as superdelegates.[1]

To win the Democratic nomination, a presidential candidate must receive support from a majority of the pledged delegates on the first ballot: 1,991 pledged delegates.[2][3] If the convention is contested and goes to a second ballot or more, automatic delegates will be able to vote and a candidate must receive majority support from all delegates: more than 2,375 votes.[4] Roughly two-thirds of the delegates will have been allocated by the end of March 2020. ]


17 posted on 02/26/2020 8:02:38 AM PST by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Zhang Fei
Well I think the other candidates will continue to run for awhile in order to keep Sanders delegate count in check. This will also give Bloomsberg time to up his game even further. Either or it appears a broker convention can't be avoided at the rate things are going currently.

I agree Bloomsberg campaign moves aren't traditional and he could very well buy what he needs, but how that will actually play out at a convention is questionable..

18 posted on 02/26/2020 8:24:17 AM PST by caww
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To: caww

[I agree Bloomsberg campaign moves aren’t traditional and he could very well buy what he needs, but how that will actually play out at a convention is questionable.. ]


They’re not traditional only in the sense that his lack of political pedigree (basically being a multi-decade tax-eater like every other full-time politician while waiting for his number to be called) means he has to pay up to speak directly to the voters so the public (1) knows who he is, (2) sees him as a legitimate contender for the office he is running for and (3) isn’t fazed by negative press coverage because Bloomberg has his own (very expensive) information operation to drown that coverage out. At conventions, buying your rivals out is the norm, once you get past the first ballot. Candidates who don’t have billions buy rivals out with government money, whether via cabinet positions or (sotto voce) government contracts. Bloomberg will can offer that *and* spend his own money on monetary inducements - a multi-million dollar contribution to their PAC or personal charity can do wonders to open their eyes to the benefits of his candidacy for the Democratic party.


19 posted on 02/26/2020 8:36:51 AM PST by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Zhang Fei
The poll has a margin of error of 5.4%.

So basically they are stating the obvious, it's a 3 man race, but we already know that. We also know that Biden is tumbling. we also know that mini-mike can't debate or deal with average people. We do know that Bernie is a clown and has just enough rabid support to gain a plurality of delegates. What we don't know yet is just how nutzo their convention is going to be.

20 posted on 02/26/2020 8:40:45 AM PST by 1Old Pro
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