Poll finds three-way Democratic contest in Florida with Mike Bloomberg the slight leader

Florida Politics ^ | February 24, 2020 | Peter Schorsch

[Zhang Fei]

Florida Democrats are settling almost equally on Mike Bloomberg, Joe Biden, and Bernie Sanders as their pick in the March 17 presidential primary, according to a new poll from Florida Southern College’s Center for Polling and Policy Research.

The survey, released Monday, gives former New York City Mayor Bloomberg 23% support, former Vice President Biden 22% support, and Vermont Sen. Sanders 18% support.

Slipping toward also-ran positions in the poll were Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren with 12%, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 9%, and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar with 5%. California businessman Tom Steyer and Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard essentially got no support. One percent said they would vote for someone else and 9% of the Democrats surveyed said they were undecided.

The pollsters also asked how strongly the respondents feel about their choices. The results suggest Bloomberg has a considerable base of support in the state committed to voting for him in the primary, with Sanders, Biden, and Buttigieg attracting a number of supporters leaning toward voting for them.

The telephone poll of 329 Democratic voters was taken last week Monday through Friday, and the results were analyzed among the 313 who identified themselves as likely voters. The poll has a margin of error of 5.4%.

The survey was taken before the Nevada caucuses and many of the responses came in before the nationally-televised debate last Wednesday when nearly-universal consensus held that Bloomberg stumbled badly, particularly when questioned by Warren and Biden about his past treatment of women.

Nonetheless, Bloomberg held the strongest support. When pressed, more than half, 51%, of the respondents who said they were ready to vote for Bloomberg said they were definitely voting for him and another 18% said they were probably voting for him. Only 31% said they were leaning toward

[Zhang Fei]

As I've mentioned elsewhere, people who purchase consumer products are influenced by the last voice they hear on a given product. In politics, the product is the candidate. Ads and get-out-the-vote organizations that contact people who might be simpatico re the candidate are ways candidates can nullify negative free media, either in the form of critical journalists or poor debate performances. And that is just what Bloomberg has attempted. He has drowned out negative media impressions with his ads, local pol endorsements and campaign worker contacts. Not everyone can do it because it's prohibitively expensive. But a candidate able to spend billions can, and is getting it done:

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Sanders	Biden	Bloomberg	Warren	Buttigieg	Klobuchar	Steyer	Gabbard	Spread
RCP Average	2/14 - 2/24	--	28.8	17.4	14.8	13.0	10.2	5.6	2.4	1.8	Sanders +11.4
The Hill/HarrisX	2/23 - 2/24	470 RV	28	17	19	8	12	3	3	2	Sanders +9
CBS News/YouGov	2/20 - 2/22	6498 LV	28	17	13	19	10	5	2	1	Sanders +9
Emerson	2/16 - 2/18	573 LV	29	22	14	12	8	6	3	4	Sanders +7
ABC News/Wash Post	2/14 - 2/17	408 RV	32	16	14	12	8	7	2	1	Sanders +16
Economist/YouGov	2/16 - 2/18	555 LV	24	18	12	16	11	7	2	2	Sanders +6
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	2/14 - 2/17	426 LV	27	15	14	14	13	7	2	1	Sanders +12
SurveyUSA	2/13 - 2/17	1022 LV	29	18	18	10	12	4	2	--	Sanders +11
NPR/PBS/Marist	2/13 - 2/16	527 RV	31	15	19	12	8	9	2	0	Sanders +12
The Hill/HarrisX	2/14 - 2/15	449 RV	22	19	18	12	10	5	3	0	Sanders +3
Morning Consult	2/12 - 2/17	15974 RV	28	19	20	10	12	6	3	2	Sanders +8

[McGavin999]

All themoneyin the world can’t buy a personality. Bloomberg stunk up the stage again tonight. Even with his hired audience

[lee martell]

Biden is probably backed mostly by people who will vote for a shoehorn if it has the word Democrat stuck to it.

Such voters don’t even bother to really learn what their candidate is saying on issues. They vote straight ticket, no matter what. I have lots of folks in my family like that, still willfully under hypnosis and self delusion.
Ignorant bliss.

Some of this group won’t awaken till their party is fully infiltrated and commandeered by the socialists.

[Flick Lives]

The poll has a margin of error of 5.4%.

—

Wow.

[Lurkinanloomin]

We need to push Bernie over the top and down their throats.

[TonyM]

If half of Republicans in open primary states would vote for Sanders in the primary it could happen. And that would be the end of the demwit communist party.

[gibsonguy]

I want Mikey Mouse knocked but l don’t think it is going to happen.

[familyop]

Many Floridians are from New York or other parts of the northeast, but I’d be surprised to see Bloomberg get more votes than Sanders.

[rrrod]

I think Gillum will endorse Bernie and that should put him on top.

[ConservativeMind]

This is where cross over votes from Republicans for Bernie would make sense.

[Lurkinanloomin]

I’m trying to recruit as many as possible to do that.
Make them openly wear the socialism they’ve been cloaking all these years.

[MrEdd]

Only ¡YEB! can save us from Hillary Clinton. Donald Trump will never be the Republican nominee.

Polls never lie.

And those polls were every bit as accurate as this one.

[Herakles]

A Jewish guy leading in Flordia, who would have thunk!

[Robert357]

What a beautiful brokered convention we will see where Super Delegates decide the Democratic Primary and determine the Party Candidate. The bloodbath will be a site to behold.

May the Democrats destroy their own party for decades to come.

[Zhang Fei]

[What a beautiful brokered convention we will see where Super Delegates decide the Democratic Primary and determine the Party Candidate. The bloodbath will be a site to behold.

May the Democrats destroy their own party for decades to come.]

---

From your lips to Jupiter’s ears.

[caww]

Bloomberg has shown in both debates he’s not into these slap stick performances and prefers staying on issues and reasonable debate that he knows the bimbo’s standing with him lack.....He appeals to the level headed voters who want to see and hear the actual positions of the candidates rather than the cat-fights.

[Zhang Fei]

[Bloomberg has shown in both debates he’s not into these slap stick performances and prefers staying on issues and reasonable debate that he knows the bimbo’s standing with him lack.....He appeals to the level headed voters who want to see and hear the actual positions of the candidates rather than the cat-fights.]

---

He can’t afford to offend any of the other players. His path to the nomination involves coming in at #2 or #3, getting past the first ballot and then buying everyone else’s delegates out. So his strategy is to be as inoffensive as possible to his rivals, with a single exception. That exception is Sanders, whom he can and must burn to the ground, in order to hold Sanders’s delegate count down, and make his own path to a majority easier.

The best shot for Bloomberg’s path to the nomination consists of him getting the #2 spot, delegate-wise, after Sanders, buying off all the Dem also-rans, and prevailing on the second ballot. If he doesn’t get the #2 slot, things become a lot harder, because whomever is #2 is going to think of himself not merely as a kingmaker but a potential nominee, and therefore less likely to give up his delegates to Bloomberg.

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https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2020
[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be selected by delegates to the Democratic National Convention, which will be held July 13-16, 2020, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The national nominating convention is the formal ceremony during which the party officially selects its nominee. The delegates are individuals chosen to represent their state, territory, or Democrats Abroad at the convention.

In 2020, there will be 4,750 delegates: 3,979 pledged delegates and 771 automatic delegates—more commonly known as superdelegates.[1]

To win the Democratic nomination, a presidential candidate must receive support from a majority of the pledged delegates on the first ballot: 1,991 pledged delegates.[2][3] If the convention is contested and goes to a second ballot or more, automatic delegates will be able to vote and a candidate must receive majority support from all delegates: more than 2,375 votes.[4] Roughly two-thirds of the delegates will have been allocated by the end of March 2020. ]

[caww]

Well I think the other candidates will continue to run for awhile in order to keep Sanders delegate count in check. This will also give Bloomsberg time to up his game even further. Either or it appears a broker convention can't be avoided at the rate things are going currently.

I agree Bloomsberg campaign moves aren't traditional and he could very well buy what he needs, but how that will actually play out at a convention is questionable..

[Zhang Fei]

[I agree Bloomsberg campaign moves aren’t traditional and he could very well buy what he needs, but how that will actually play out at a convention is questionable.. ]

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They’re not traditional only in the sense that his lack of political pedigree (basically being a multi-decade tax-eater like every other full-time politician while waiting for his number to be called) means he has to pay up to speak directly to the voters so the public (1) knows who he is, (2) sees him as a legitimate contender for the office he is running for and (3) isn’t fazed by negative press coverage because Bloomberg has his own (very expensive) information operation to drown that coverage out. At conventions, buying your rivals out is the norm, once you get past the first ballot. Candidates who don’t have billions buy rivals out with government money, whether via cabinet positions or (sotto voce) government contracts. Bloomberg will can offer that *and* spend his own money on monetary inducements - a multi-million dollar contribution to their PAC or personal charity can do wonders to open their eyes to the benefits of his candidacy for the Democratic party.

[1Old Pro]

The poll has a margin of error of 5.4%.

So basically they are stating the obvious, it's a 3 man race, but we already know that. We also know that Biden is tumbling. we also know that mini-mike can't debate or deal with average people. We do know that Bernie is a clown and has just enough rabid support to gain a plurality of delegates. What we don't know yet is just how nutzo their convention is going to be.