I think he has a very good chance. Since 1952, (other than 1968 when LJB withdrew after Iowa and New Hampshire), I don’t see a nominee of either party who didn’t come in at least 1st or 2nd in either Iowa or New Hampshire. And there is a legacy of whoever came in 2nd last nominating cycle to get it now-e.g. Hillary Clinton, McCain cuz organizations in place so that would be Sanders
e.g. Reagan came in 2nd to Bush in 1980 in Iowa but won New Hampshire . In Iowa, 1992 with an Iowa Dem Senator running, and sex scandals breaking Bill Clinton finished 3rd or 4th if you count uncommitted, but finished 2nd in New Hampshire. McCain came in a close 4th in Iowa in 2008 and won New Hampshire , these are the poorest finishers I have found and note they each came in either 1st or 2nd in one of the two. So if this holds its probably Sanders.
Blomberg introduces something new and that is $1 billion but after his bad debate performance it will cost him another $400 million. Biden might defy history because the country has higher % “people of color” in other states but I don’t think so.