[cgbg]

You have to look at the rules of the primaries.

The Democrats eliminated all winner take all primaries.

So even if Bernie were to win all of them, he still would not have 50% of the delegates unless he won all of them by large margins (like he had in Nevada).

In many southern states Bernie will do well to barely win and get a third of the delegates. My guess is that he will only get a quarter of the delegates in the south.

He should exceed the 50% margin in states like CA, TX, WA, OR.

My prediction is he will have somewhere between 40 and 45% of the delegates by convention time, with no-one else above 20%.

[irishjuggler]

My prediction is he will have somewhere between 40 and 45% of the delegates by convention time, with no-one else above 20%.

That's definitely how it's looking at the moment. Man, if he comes in with 40-45% of the delegates and everyone else is <25%, it'll be HELL to pay from Bernie's fans if the party tries to screw him out of it.

[TigerClaws]

I agree. Bernie with 40 percent. Then the elites try to steal it at the convention.

[Helicondelta]

“My prediction is he will have somewhere between 40 and 45% of the delegates by convention time”

If this happens he will probably have to choose an establishment VP to get the support of the super delegates.

But he’ll likely go over 50%. He’ll keep winning primaries and the turnout for the other candidates will go down.