[palmer]

The outbreak is far enough along where a truer measure of the death rate = (dead)/(dead + recovered). You cannot say anything about the future that awaits the 50,000 that have not recovered or died.

So the death rate is likely closer to 2628/(2628+25215) = 9.4 percent.

What about the people a few weeks ago who said the death rate was 50% because the recovery number matched the mortality number? Not far enough along? Why is it far enough along now?

[IndispensableDestiny]

Not far enough along? Why is it far enough along now?

Because the average time to death is quicker and reported sooner than the average time to recovery. Early in the outbreak this difference is significant in calculating death rates. With time, it is not. Arithmetic is proof. Once the outbreak is over, the number of cases should equal dead + recovered.