Fears 14-day coronavirus quarantine is too short after Chinese pensioner took 27 days to show symptoms

The Daily Mail ^ | 23 February 2020 | Phoebe Eckersley

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

A man, 70, drove to Shennongjia, Hubei, where he met his sister on January 24

The Chinese pensioner, known as Jiang, then developed fever on February 20

He tested positive for coronavirus a day later, says government statement

The case has sparked fears that a 14-day quarantine is two weeks too short

SNIP

This case could change the current policy which presumes a 14-day incubation period. It comes as the global epidemic has killed 2,458 people and infected 78,572. And there is a reported surge in untraceable clusters of new coronavirus patients which has caused experts to warn that 'containment methods are not going to work'.

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

A Chinese pensioner who took 27 days to show coronavirus symptoms has sparked fears that a 14-day quarantine is two weeks too short. The 70-year-old man was infected with the killer virus in China's Hubei Province and showed symptoms nearly four weeks later, the local government said on Saturday.

(SNIP)

He drove to Shennongjia, in north-western Hubei, from eastern Ezhou, where he had close contact with his sister, who had been infected, on January 24, according to the Hubei government website.

This just changed the playing field in a HUGE way. Oh man....

[null and void]

There's a reason that the word quarantine is from the Italian for "40 days"...

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

There's a reason that the word quarantine is from the Italian for "40 days"...

Guess the study of history CAN be beneficial, hmmm???

[sauropod]

.

[duckman]

Is it just me or am I sensing something Biblical in the earths future?

[mewzilla]

Oh, for pete’s sake.

I’d argue that there’s also a chance he got infected by someone else later on.

I don’t take the ChiCom’s word on anything.

BTW, are they still refusing to allow our CDC into China?

[Moonman62]

Oh, for pete’s sake.

I’d argue that there’s also a chance he got infected by someone else later on.

...

Or some other reasonable explanation.

If the 14 day quarantine wasn’t working there would be evidence for it by now.

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

Oh, for pete’s sake.

You can say that again...

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

If the 14 day quarantine wasn’t working there would be evidence for it by now.

Like the outbreaks in Italy, Iran and South Korea? Well, guess there is not enough evidence for people to realize the seriousness of this yet. I concede.

[21twelve]

In four days, the confirmed totals in S. Korea have gone from 0 to about 140. Oops. Now, in five days it is over 600 confirmed cases.

[Sirius Lee]

There's a reason that the word quarantine is from the Italian for "40 days"...

Speaking of Italy, there are towns, like Prato, that have large Chinese populations/Chinatowns for decades.

Except for a brief mention that two of the cases in Italy were "chinese tourists" I haven't seen what the ethnic breakdown is of those infected. But I would wager those that do don't have Roman or Florentine accents.

[MattMusson]

“DON’T PANIC!” The Hitchhiker’s Guide

Don’t Panic folks. The USA has NEVER had a flu epidemic in the Summer and we won’t now. It is NOT happening.

We could have deadly clusters. But, chances of large scale USA CV Influenza epidemic are slim because it is too late in the season.

[Moonman62]

Like the outbreaks in Italy, Iran and South Korea? Well, guess there is not enough evidence for people to realize the seriousness of this yet. I concede.

...

You should write a letter to the CDC and tell them why they are wrong, how much evidence you have, and your impeccable sources.

Let us know how it goes.

[P.O.E.]

I never thought of that, thanks:

https://www.etymonline.com/word/quarantine

quarantine (n.)
1660s, “period a ship suspected of carrying disease is kept in isolation,” from Italian quarantina giorni, literally “space of forty days,” from quaranta “forty,” from Latin quadraginta”forty,” which is related to quattuor “four” (from PIE root *kwetwer- “four”). So called from the Venetian policy (first enforced in 1377) of keeping ships from plague-stricken countries waiting off its port for 40 days to assure that no latent cases were aboard.

[allendale]

Exactly the point. Unless a quarantine is done properly, the right amount of time and no leaks or intermingling, it is worse than useless. Reverse quarantines however where healthy people really isolate themselves away from the masses have turned out in retrospect to be effective. Hard to do.

Brings us back to the troubling reality that between Dec 15-Jan15 thousands of people travelled from Wusan to multiple points in the United States. The virus is here.

[PIF]

summer does not start for months - 4 months which is when the snow here in WI will finally melt

Be sure to clutch your towel

[PIF]

there are certain folks here that are not educable and clutch the ‘its just the flu’ meme trying to deal with or convince them otherwise is just not possible.

[Captain Rhino]

We are an international family.

My wife is currently in Japan attending to family business related to the sudden death of her older sister from a massive stroke a week ago Friday. She is deliberately avoiding visiting her infant grandniece and toddler grandnephew (whom she spent a month caring for early last year) due to fears about the virus and especially its as yet undiscussed effect on young children, infants and the unborn.

I mention the unborn because of the Zika virus scare we went through in the recent past and because our youngest daughter is now in the early months of her first pregnancy. So, even when she gets back from Japan (at the end of next week), we are going to be darned certain there is a good interval before we see my daughter...just in case.

If you can find them, better stock up on face masks and on hand sanitizer.

[Kozak]

There are now multiple examples of people being infectious for more then 14 days.
Not all of them from mainland China either.
There’s nothing magic about 14 days as a quarantine for this. It was a GUESS. And they guessed wrong.

[trebb]

They presume that he got it from his sister - there is so much “theoretical data” being thrown into the mix that it is compromising the ability to get some solid facts...unless other cases start coming out like this, I’m gonna leave this shark un-jumped.