On 2/12, I predicted
2/13 21:30, 1425 dead, actual 1383, 2.8% low.
2/14 21:30, 1500 dead, actual 1526, 1.7% high.
2/15 21:30, 1990 dead
If I’m close (±15%) I’ll tell you how. So far, so good.
The mortality rate for corona has been in the 2.0% - 2.5% range since the very first cases were reported.
In the USA, the mortality rate for the 1918 Spanish Flu was also 2.5%.
The USA infection rate for Spanish Flu was close to 30%, or about 30 million people.
The USA death toll was about 700,000.
The USA population in 1918 was slightly more than 100 million.