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To: PGR88

Central banks can only set the shortest of interest rates, their own discount rate.

Long rates are determined by bond buyers in the open market.

Something made very obvious to the doubters in the 1970s when the Bond Vigilantes exerted their power.

Printed money is a negligible portion of the money supply. Repos are usually overnight loans, And QE has already been unwound. China has a huge and still increasing savings glut that keeps a lid on our long rates whether you choose to believe it or not.


16 posted on 02/12/2020 9:39:30 PM PST by Pelham (RIP California, killed by massive immigration)
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To: Pelham

Centrals banks can easily manipulate whatever rate they want, through market operations.

Some central banks (EU and Japan) have been buying government and corporate bonds for years to suppress their rates

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/omt/html/index.en.html#pspp

You don’t call it “money printing,” but many, many people do. Here’s just one.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4293900-qe4-begins-fed-printed-extra-161_7-billion-last-week

As to bond vigilantes, it seems odd to me that no one would be tempted to take a juicy 10% interest rate overnight or for very short terms to lend with the highest quality of government bonds as collateral. Yet the Fed is willing to loan at around 1.5%. since the start of repo operations, we’ve had nearly $4 Trillion in such deals through Fed market operations. Savings glut?

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-repo-operations-explained-what-they-are-and-used-for-2019-9-1028557683#why-purpose-do-repos-serve-2


23 posted on 02/12/2020 10:20:27 PM PST by PGR88
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